What is Fundamental Analysis?

Along your travels, you’ve undoubtedly come across Gulliver, Frodo, and the topic of fundamental analysis.

Wait a minute…

We’ve already given you a teaser about fundamental analysis during Kindergarten! Now let’s get to the nitty-gritty!

What is it exactly and will I need to use it? Well, fundamental analysis is the study of fundamentals! That was easy, wasn’t it? Ha! Gotcha!

There’s really more to it than that. Soooo much more.

Whenever you hear people mention fundamentals, they’re really talking about the economic fundamentals of a currency’s host country or economy.

Economic fundamentals cover a vast collection of information – whether in the form of economic, political or environmental reports, data, announcements or events.

Even a credit rating downgrade qualifies as fundamental data and you should see how Pipcrawler turned this news into a winning short EUR/USD trade.

Fundamental analysis is the use and study of these factors to forecast future price movements of currencies.

It is the study of what’s going on in the world and around us, economically and financially speaking, and it tends to focus on how macroeconomic elements (such as the growth of the economy, inflation, unemployment) affect whatever we’re trading.

Fundamental Data and Its Many Forms

In particular, fundamental analysis provides insight into how price action “should” or may react to a certain economic event.

Fundamental data takes shape in many different forms.

It can appear as a report released by the Fed on U.S. existing home sales. It can also exist in the possibility that the European Central Bank will change its monetary policy.

The release of this data to the public often changes the economic landscape (or better yet, the economic mindset), creating a reaction from investors and speculators.

There are even instances when no specific report has been released, but the anticipation of such a report happening is another example of fundamentals.

Speculations of interest rate hikes can be “priced in” hours or even days before the actual interest rate statement.

In fact, currency pairs have been known to sometimes move 100 pips just moments before major economic news, making for a profitable time to trade for the brave.

That’s why many forex traders are often on their toes prior to certain economic releases and you should be too!

Generally, economic indicators make up a large portion of data used in fundamental analysis. Like a fire alarm sounding when it detects smoke or feels heat, economic indicators provide some insight into how well a country’s economy is doing.

While it’s important to know the numerical value of an indicator, equally as important is the market’s anticipation and prediction of that value.

Understanding the resulting impact of the actual figure in relation to the forecasted figure is the most important part. These factors all need consideration when deciding to trade.

Phew!

Don’t worry. It’s simpler than it sounds and you won’t need to know rocket science to figure it all out.

I suggest you visit Pip Diddy’s daily economic roundup every day so that you can stay in the loop with the upcoming economic releases.

Fundamental analysis is a valuable tool in estimating the future conditions of an economy, but not so much for predicting currency price direction.

This type of analysis has a lot of gray areas because fundamental information in the form of reports releases or monetary policy change announcements is vaguer than actual technical indicators.

Analysis of economic releases and reports of fundamental data usually go something like this:

“An interest rate increase of that percentage MAY cause the euro to go up.”

“The U.S. dollar SHOULD go down with an indicator value in that range.”

“Consumer confidence dipped 2% since the last report.”

Here’s an Economic Report, Now What?

The market has a tendency to react based on how people feel. These feelings can be based on their reaction to economic reports, based on their assessment of current market conditions.

And you guessed it – there are tons of people, all with different feelings and ideas.

You’re probably thinking “Geez, there’s a lot of uncertainty in fundamental analysis!”

You’re actually very right.

There’s no way of knowing 100% where a currency pair will go because of some new fundamental data.

That’s not saying that fundamental analysis should be dismissed.

Not at all.

Because of the sheer volume of fundamental data available, most people simply have a hard time putting it all together.

They understand a specific report, but can’t factor it into the broader economic picture. This simply takes time and a deeper understanding of the data.

Also, since most fundamental data are reported only for a single currency, fundamental data for the other currency in the pair would also be needed and would then have to be compared to get an accurate picture.

If you’re too busy to go through a bajillion news reports and economic data, don’t fret. Our resident economic guru, Forex Gump, got yo back covered! Make sure you read up on his regular economic analysis on his Piponomics blog.

As we mentioned from the get-go, it’s all about pairing a strong currency with a weak one.

At this point, you’re probably still waiting for the answer to “Will I ever need to use fundamental analysis to become a successful forex trader?”

We totally understand that there are purists on both sides.

Technical analysis seems to be the preferred methodology of short-term forex traders, with price action as their main focus.

Intermediate or medium traders and some long-term traders like to focus on fundamental analysis too because it helps with currency valuation.

Forex Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis
We like to be a little crazy by saying you should use BOTH!

Technically-focused strategies are blown to bits when a key fundamental event occurs. In the same respect, pure fundamental traders miss out on the short term opportunities that pattern formations and technical levels bring.

A mix of technical and fundamental analysis covers all angles. You’re aware of the scheduled economic releases and events, but you can also identify and use the various technical tools and patterns that market players focus on.

I have a couple of trade examples for you showing how the perfect blend of fundamental and technical analysis results in huge profits. Check out Cyclopip’s huge win on EUR/JPY and Happy Pip’s 115-pip profit on NZD/USD.

There’s your answer!

Happy?!

In this lesson, we’ll discuss the major fundamental factors that affect currencies. These are interest rates, monetary policies, and market-moving economic reports.

As I mentioned earlier, Pip Diddy’s daily economic roundup is a great source of economic updates. Combine that with Forex Gump’s in depth Piponomics articles and fundamental analysis will be a breeze!

什么是基本面分析

在幼儿园课程中,我们已经对基本面分析进行了基本的介绍,现在,是时候对此进行深入学习了。

基本面分析到底是什么,我们又应该如何利用它呢?简单来说,基本面分析就是对经济基本面的研究,很简单,是吧?

当然,事实可远不是这么简单,对于基本面分析,我们需要了解更多。

当我们听到有人谈到基本面时,他们实际上是在谈论某一货币所有国或经济体的经济基本面。

经济基本面涉及众多的信息——不管是经济层面的、政治层面的或环境层面的报告、数据、声明或事件,均与经济基本面相关。

甚至是一国主权评级遭下调也可以归入基本面分析中,比如说,欧元区国家主权信用评级的下调通常会导致欧元/美元的下跌。

基本面分析就是对上述因素进行综合研究和分析,并预计货币对未来价格走势情况。

从经济和金融角度来说,基本面分析主要集中于宏观经济组成部分,比如经济增长、通胀、失业率等对我们正在进行的交易的影响。

基本面数据及其众多形式

特别来说,基本面分析给我们指明了价格对某一经济指标“应该”或可能的反应。

我们可以从不同的经济指标中对基本面数据进行分析。

基本面数据可以见于美联储公布的成屋销售数据中,也可见于欧洲央行可能改变其货币政策的可能性中。

基本面数据向外部的公布通常会改变市场对经济局面的看法,投资者和投机者则会对数据做出相应反应。

在利率决议公布之前,投资者对升息预期能够在数小时甚至数天之前就开始消化。

实际上,在一些重大经济数据公布后,相关货币对短时间内的波动通常会超过100点,这对那些勇敢的交易者来说提供了很好的获利机会。

这也是为什么一些交易者通常在一些重大宏观经济数据公布之前保持高度关注的原因,你也应该如此。

一般来说,在基本面分析中,经济数据的分析占到基本面分析的相当大一部分。和火警警报在探测到烟雾或热量会发出响声一样,经济指标也为我们深入洞悉经济体状况提供了依据。

尽管最终公布的指标数值相当重要,数据公布之前市场对相关数据的预测值也同样重要。

了解最终数据公布后,市场在和预期数据比较之后所做出的反应是基本面分析中最重要的一环。当我们打算进行交易之前,这些因素都要考虑在内。

是不是觉得有些高深?别担心,实际上它比听起来要简单得多。

基本面分析为我们预测经济体未来经济状况提供了非常有价值的工具,但对于预测货币对未来走势还远远不够。

基本面分析也存在诸多不足,因为基本面信息以报告的形式公布出来,或货币政策改变的声明公布对汇价的指引较实际的技术指标更为模糊。

对经济数据的分析通常是这个样子:

“欧洲央行降息可能导致欧元走低。”

“某一经济指标维持在那一区域内,美元应该会走低。”

“消费者信心自上次报告公布至今已下降2%。”

基本面分析还是技术面分析?

基于人们的感觉,市场倾向于做出反应。人们的这些感觉可能是基于他们对经济报告的反应,或基于对当前市场状况的评估。

你应该猜到了,这个世界上存在数以亿计的人口,他们都有不同的感觉和观点。

你很可能在想,“天啦,基本面分析存在这么多的不确定性因素啊!”

是的,你的想法实际上非常正确。

我们不可能单凭基本面经济指标数据的好坏来百分百判断出汇价未来走势情况。

这并不是说基本面分析应该摒弃。

绝非如此。

由于可供分析的基本面数据数量相当庞大,将所有这些数据综合起来分析对绝大多数人来说都是不可能的。

他们可能对某一经济报告相当了解,但是单凭这一点他们仍不能完全获悉整体经济的全貌。

同时,鉴于绝大多数基本面数据都只涉及到某一单一货币国家或经济体,而针对其他国家或经济体货币分析的数据也是需要的,只有这样,对货币对的分析才更加全面。

正如我们之前所提到的,货币对分析就是对某一强劲货币和某一疲弱货币的综合分析。

从这一点来说,你很可能会问“我需要进行基本面分析使自己成为成功的交易者吗?”

我们完全知道,基本面分析的拥簇者和技术面分析的拥簇者在现实中都是切切实实存在的。

技术面分析对短线投资者来说似乎更有用,因为价格波动是他们关注的焦点。

中线或一些长线交易者也会对基本面分析进行关注,因为基本面分析能够提供货币币值的相关信息。
Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 1
现在,我们要疯狂一回,因为我们要告诉你,你应该兼顾使用基本面分析和技术面分析。

当某一关键基本面事件发生时,技术分析策略可能派不上用场;而当某一价格形态短期内形成,或汇价触及某一关键价位时,纯基本面分析交易者可能会错过机会。

基本面和技术面分析会将两者都兼顾起来。你可以保持对即将公布的经济数据或事件的关注,你同时也可以使用不同的技术分析工具指导你的交易。

在本课中,我们将就影响货币对走势的主要基本面因素进行讨论。它们包括:利率、货币政策以及经济数据等。

Why Interest Rates Matter for Forex Traders

Simply put, interest rates make the forex world go ’round! In other words, the forex market is ruled by interest rates.

A currency’s interest rate is probably the biggest factor in determining the perceived value of a currency. So knowing how a country’s central bank sets its monetary policy, such as interest rate decisions, is a crucial thing to wrap your head around.

One of the biggest influences on a central bank’s interest rate decision is price stability, or “inflation”.

Inflation is a steady increase in the prices of goods and services.

Inflation is the reason why your parents or your parents’ parents paid a nickel for a soda pop in the 1920’s, but now people pay twenty times more for the same product.

It’s generally accepted that moderate inflation comes with economic growth.

However, too much inflation can harm an economy and that’s why central banks are always keeping a watchful eye on inflation-related economic indicators, such as the CPI and PCE.

CountryCentral Bank
AustraliaReserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
CanadaBank of Canada (BOC)
European UnionEuropean Central Bank (ECB)
JapanBank of Japan (BOJ)
New ZealandReserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
SwitzerlandSwiss National Bank (SNB)
United KingdomBank of England (BOE)
United StatesFederal Reserve (Fed)

In an effort to keep inflation at a comfortable level, central banks will mostly likely increase interest rates, resulting in lower overall growth and slower inflation.

This occurs because setting high interest rates normally forces consumers and businesses to borrow less and save more, putting a damper on economic activity. Loans just become more expensive while sitting on cash becomes more attractive.

On the other hand, when interest rates are decreasing, consumers and businesses are more inclined to borrow (because banks ease lending requirements), boosting retail and capital spending, thus helping the economy to grow.

Yippee!

Effects of Interest Rates in Forex
What does this have to do with the forex market?

Well, currencies rely on interest rates because these dictate the flow of global capital into and out of a country. They’re what investors use to determine if they’ll invest in a country or go elsewhere.

For instance, if you had your choice between a savings account offering 1% interest and another offering .25%, which would you choose?

Neither, you say?

Yea, we’re inclined to go the same route – keep the money under the mattress, ya know what we mean? – but that’s not an option.

Ha! You would pick the 1%, right?

We hope so… because 1 is bigger than 0.25. Currencies work the same way!

The higher a country’s interest rate, the more likely its currency will strengthen. Currencies surrounded by lower interest rates are more likely to weaken over the longer term.

Pretty simple stuff.

The main point to be learned here is that domestic interest rates directly affect how global market players feel about a currency’s value relative to another.

Interest Rate Expectations

Markets are ever-changing with the anticipation of different events and situations. Interest rates do the same thing – they change – but they definitely don’t change as often.

Most forex traders don’t spend their time focused on current interest rates because the market has already “priced” them into the currency price. What is more important is where interest rates are EXPECTED to go.

It’s also important to know that interest rates tend to shift in line with monetary policy, or more specifically, with the end of monetary cycles.

If rates have been going lower and lower over a period a time, it’s almost inevitable that the opposite will happen.

Rates will have to increase at some point.

And you can count on the speculators to try to figure out when that will happen and by how much.

The market will tell them; it’s the nature of the beast. A shift in expectations is a signal that a shift in speculation will start, gaining more momentum as the interest rate change nears.

While interest rates change with the gradual shift of monetary policy, market sentiment can also change rather suddenly from just a single report.

This causes interest rates to change in a more drastic fashion or even in the opposite direction as originally anticipated.

So you better watch out!

Interest Rate Differentials

Pick a pair, any pair.

Many forex traders use a technique of comparing one currency’s interest rate to another currency’s interest rate as the starting point for deciding whether a currency may weaken or strengthen.

The difference between the two interest rates, known as the “interest rate differential,” is the key value to keep an eye on. This spread can help you identify shifts in currencies that might not be obvious.

An interest rate differential that increases helps to reinforce the higher-yielding currency, while a narrowing differential is positive for the lower-yielding currency.

Instances where the interest rates of the two countries move in opposite directions often produce some of the market’s largest swing.

An interest rate increase in one currency combined with the interest rate decrease of the other currency is a perfect equation for sharp swings!

Nominal vs. Real Interest Rates

When people talk about interest rates, they are either referring to the nominal interest rate or the real interest rate.

What’s the difference?

The nominal interest rate doesn’t always tell the entire story. The nominal interest rate is the rate of interest before adjustments for inflation.

real interest rate = nominal interest rate – expected inflation
The nominal rate is usually the stated or base rate that you see (e.g., the yield on a bond).

Markets, on the other hand, don’t focus on this rate, but rather on the real interest rate.

If you had a bond that carried a nominal yield of 6%, but inflation was at an annual rate of 5%, the bond’s real yield would be 1%.

Boohoo!

That’s a huge difference so always remember to distinguish between the two.

利率为何重要

简单来说,利率主导了外汇市场。

某一货币的利率很可能是该币种币值的最大决定因素。因此,了解一国央行的货币政策,比如说利率决定,对基本面分析来说至关重要。

对央行利率决议影响最大的因素是物价稳定,即我们所说的“通胀”。

通胀衡量的是商品或服务价格的增长情况。

通胀可以向我们解释,为什么你的父母或你父母的父母在上个世纪20年代花5美分可以买一瓶苏打汽水,但是现在人们买相同的产品需要付出超过20倍的价格。

一个被外界普遍认同的观点是,温和的通胀和经济增长保持同步态势。

不过,过度的通胀则会损及经济,这也是为什么央行始终密切关注着和通胀相关的经济指标,比如CPI或PCE指标。

Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 2

为了将通胀控制在合适水平,央行最有可能采取加息措施,这将放慢经济和通胀增长速度。

会出现这一情况的原因在于,将利率设定在高水通常将迫使消费者和企业减少借贷并增加存款,并对经济活动形成抑制。贷款成本变得更为高昂,而持有现金则变得更具吸引力。

另一方面,当利率下降时,消费者和企业会更倾向于借贷,因为银行放松了贷款条件。这会推动零售销售和资本支出的增长,因此,有助于刺激经济。

Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 3

那么,这又与外汇市场有什么关系呢?

简单来说,货币和利率息息相关,因为利率决定了全球资本是进入还是流出某一国。利率决定了投资者是投资某一国,或是其他地方。

比如说,在提供1%存款利率和提供0.25%存款利率的两家银行中,你会选择哪一家呢?

你可能会说,我才不会将钱存银行,把钱放在我家床底下不是很好吗?但是,那不是我们的选择。

你会选择1%存款利率,对吧?

我们希望如此,因为1要大于0.25,货币利率也同样有高低之分。

一国利率越高,该国货币走强的可能性越大。低利率货币从长期来说更有可能走软。

很简单,是吧?

这里,我们学习的重点是,国内利率直接影响到全球市场参与者对该国货币较其他货币币值的看法。

Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 4
PS:数据截止日期为2012年6月29日

利率预期

市场会随着人们对不同事件或情景的预期不断变化。利率同样如此——利率也会变化——只是它不会经常变动。

大多数交易者并不会把关注点放在当前利率水平上,因为市场已经为货币当前价格“计价”。他们更为关注的是利率的未来走势。

我们也有必要知道,利率会随着央行货币政策的变化而动,更具体的说,会随着货币周期的变化而变化。

如果利率在持续走低,或已经在相当长一段时间持续走低,那么利率朝反方向移动将很可能不可避免。

利率在未来某一时候将会走高。

你可以关注投机者对央行什么时候将会加息以及将会加息多少基点的预测情况。

市场会告诉他们;关注利率的未来走势是投机者的天性。预期的变化意味着,其投机策略将开始变动,随着利率变动日益临近,投机者策略的调整意愿将更强。

尽管利率会随着货币政策的逐渐变动而调整,但是市场信心可能会出现突然的变动,而这种变动仅仅只是因为一份货币声明报告。

这份声明可能预示着利率的变动将会更加显著,甚至和最初预期的方向相反。

利差

一些外汇交易者会通过不同货币的利差来确定某一货币是会走强还是走弱。

利差是外汇交易者需要高度关注的因素。利差的变动能够帮助我们判断货币对的走势情况。

货币利差的扩大利好高收益货币走势,而利差的收窄则利好低收益货币走势。

两国利率呈反向运动通常导致一些市场出现巨大波动。一国加息,而另一国降息,市场出现剧烈波动行情很可能不可避免。

名义利率VS实际利率

当人们谈论利率是,他们要买说的是实际利率,要么是名义利率。

名义利率和实际利率之间有什么区别吗?

名义利率并非始终告诉我们故事的全部。名义利率并未将通胀因素考虑在内。

实际利率=名义利率-预期率

名义利率通常是基准利率(比如说债券的收益率)。

而另一方面,市场并不会关注名义利率,而是关注实际利率。

如果你持有某一债券,该债券的名义收益率为6%,但是通胀率为5%,那么这一债券的实际收益率只有1%。

这可是很大的区别呀,所以,我们要始终记住名义利率和实际利率之间的区别。

How Monetary Policy Affects the Forex Market

As we mentioned earlier, national governments and their corresponding central banking authorities formulate monetary policy to achieve certain economic mandates or goals.

Central banks and monetary policy go hand-in-hand, so you can’t talk about one without talking about the other.

While some of these mandates and goals are very similar between the world’s central bank, each have their own unique set of goals brought on by their distinctive economies.

Ultimately, monetary policy boils down to promoting and maintaining price stability and economic growth.

To achieve their goals, central banks use monetary policy mainly to control the following:

  • the interest rates tied to the cost of money,
  • the rise in inflation,
  • the money supply,
  • reserve requirements over banks,
  • and discount window lending to commercial banks

Types of Monetary Policy

Monetary policy can be referred to in a couple different ways. Contractionary or restrictive monetary policy takes place if it reduces the size of the money supply. It can also occur with the raising of interest rates.

The idea here is to slow economic growth with the high interest rates. Borrowing money becomes harder and more expensive, which reduces spending and investment by both consumers and businesses.

Expansionary Monetary Policy

Expansionary monetary policy, on the other hand, expands or increases the money supply, or decreases the interest rate.

The cost of borrowing money goes down in hopes that spending and investment will go up.

Accommodative monetary policy aims to create economic growth by lowering the interest rate, whereas tight monetary policy is set to reduce inflation or restrain economic growth by raising interest rates.

Finally, neutral monetary policy intends to neither create growth nor fight inflation.

The important thing to remember about inflation is that central banks usually have an inflation target in mind, say 2%.

They might not come out and say it specifically, but their monetary policies all operate and focus on reaching this comfort zone.

They know that some inflation is a good thing, but out-of-control inflation can remove the confidence people have in their economy, their job, and ultimately, their money.

By having target inflation levels, central banks help market participants better understand how they (the central bankers) will deal with the current economic landscape.

Let’s take a look at an example.

Back in January of 2010, inflation in the U.K. shot up to 3.5% from 2.9% in just one month. With a target inflation rate of 2%, the new 3.5% rate was well above the Bank of England’s comfort zone.

Mervyn King, the governor of the BOE, followed up the report by reassuring people that temporary factors caused the sudden jump, and that the current inflation rate would fall in the near term with minimal action from the BOE.

Whether or not his statements turned out to be true is not the point here. We just want to show that the market is in a better place when it knows why the central bank does or doesn’t do something in relation to its target interest rate.

Simply put, traders like stability.

Central banks like stability.

Economies like stability. Knowing that inflation targets exist will help a trader to understand why a central bank does what it does.

Round and Round with Monetary Policy Cycles

For those of you that follow the U.S. dollar and economy (and that should be all of you!), remember a few years back when the Fed increased interest rates by 10% out of the blue?

It was the craziest thing to come out of the Fed ever, and the financial world was in an uproar!

Wait, you don’t remember this happening?

It was all over the media.

Petroleum prices went through the roof and milk was priced like gold.

You must have been sleeping!

Oh wait, we were just pulling your leg!

We just wanted to make sure you were still awake. Monetary policy would never dramatically change like that.

Most policy changes are made in small, incremental adjustments because the bigwigs at the central banks would have utter chaos on their hands if interest rates changed radically.

Just the idea of something like that happening would disrupt not only the individual trader, but the economy as a whole.

That’s why we normally see interest rate changes of .25% to 1% at a time. Again, remember that central banks want price stability, not shock and awe.

Part of this stability comes with the amount of time needed to make these interest rate changes happen. It can take several months to even several years.

Monetary Policy Rate Hikes

Just like forex traders who collect and study data to make their next move, central bankers do a similar job, but they have to focus their decision-making with the entire economy in mind, not just a single trade.

Interest rate hikes can be like stepping on the brakes while interest rate cuts can be like hitting the accelerator, but bear in mind that consumers and business react a little more slowly to these changes.

This lag time between the change in monetary policy and the actual effect on the economy can take one to two years.

央行货币政策如何影响汇市

我们之前提到过,货币政策是指政府或中央银行为影响经济活动所采取的措施,尤指控制货币供给以及调控利率的各项措施。用以达到特定或维持政策目标——比如,抑制通胀、实现完全就业或经济增长。

央行和货币政策是不分家的,我们在提到央行或货币政策时,不可避免的会谈论到二者中的另外一个。

尽管一些使命和目标为不同央行所共有,但由于经济的差异性,央行也有其特有的政策目标。

货币政策的终极目标在于维持物价的稳定以及促进经济的增长。

为达到这些目标,央行会使用货币政策来控制以下几个方面:

● 利率

● 通胀

● 货币供给

● 存款准备金

● 贴现窗口融资

货币政策类别

货币政策可以分为不同的类别。如果央行降低货币供给,或采取加息措施,则称为紧缩型货币政策。

紧缩型货币政策的目的在于抑制经济的过快增速。加息将导致更高的借贷成本,这将降低消费和投资。

另一方面,如果增加货币供给或采取降息措施,则称为扩张型货币政策。
Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 5
降息的目的在于促进消费和投资。

扩张型货币政策目的在于通过降息或扩大货币供应量来促进经济增长,而紧缩型货币政策则为了抑制通胀或抑制经济过快增长。

最后,中性货币政策目的在于,既不会促进经济增长,也不会抑制通胀。

有一点我们需要牢牢记住,即央行通常会设定2%的通胀目标。

可能一些央行并不会明确说明其通胀目标,但是它们的货币政策操作都致力于将通胀维持在一个合理区间水平。

它们知道,适度的通胀对经济有利,但是过度的通胀则会影响人们的信心、影响到人们的就业、最终影响到他们的钱包。

通过设定通胀目标,市场参与人士可以更好的知晓,央行将如何应对当前的经济局面。

让我们举例说明。

回到2010年1月,英国当时的通胀年率增长3.5%,前一个月为增长2.9%。由于英国央行所设定的通胀目标为2%,3.5%的通胀率明显远远超出英国央行的这一目标。

为了安慰不安的人们,英国央行行长金恩随即表示,临时性因素导致通胀水平出现较大幅度增长,当前通胀率将在短期以内下滑,英国央行并不会采取特别的行动。

他的声明后来被证明是否正确并不是我们这里讨论的重点。我们只是需要向大家说明,当投资者明白央行的政策意图时,通常会处在较为有利的位置。

简单来说,交易者们都喜欢稳定。

央行也喜欢稳定。

经济体喜欢稳定。了解通胀目标的存在,将帮助交易者了解,为什么央行或采取不同的货币政策。

货币周期

大多数情况下,央行的货币政策都是小幅调整的,这是因为,如果利率变动过于迅速,可能对市场造成混乱。

央行货币政策在短时间内的大幅变动,不仅仅会对交易者造成不利影响,也会对经济造成冲击。

这也是为什么,我们一般看到利率单次调整幅度介于0.25%-1.0%之间。再次说明一下,央行希望维持物价稳定,不希望看到市场出现剧烈动荡。

央行对政策稳定性的偏好决定了,利率出现大幅变动需要一段相当长的时间。这段时间可能是数月,甚至是数年之久。

Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 6

和交易者喜欢收集和研究数据以便为下一步交易行动提供依据一样,央行也喜欢做类似的工作,但是,央行所关注的重点是整个经济体,而非仅仅的一次交易。

央行加息就好比刹车,而降息则好比踩油门,但是,请记住,消费者和企业对加息或将息的反应较为缓慢。

货币政策变动及对经济所造成的实际影响之间的时间差通常为1到2年。

Hawkish and Dovish Central Banks

We just learned that currency prices are affected a great deal by changes in a country’s interest rates.

We now know that interest rates are ultimately affected by a central bank’s view on the economy and price stability, which influence monetary policy.

Central banks operate like most other businesses in that they have a leader, a president or a chairman. It’s that individual’s role to be the voice of that central bank, conveying to the market which direction monetary policy is headed. And much like when Jeff Bezos or Mark Zuckerberg steps to the microphone, everyone listens.

So by using the Pythagorean Theorem (where a² + b² = c²), wouldn’t it make sense to keep an eye on what those guys at the central banks are saying?

Using the Complex conjugate root theorem, the answer is yes!

Yes, it’s important to know what’s coming down the road regarding potential monetary policy changes. And lucky for you, central banks are getting better at communicating with the market.

Whether you actually understand what they’re saying, well that’s a different story.

So, the next time Janet Yellen or Mario Draghi are giving speeches, keep your ears open. Better yet, use the trusty BabyPips.com Economic Calendar to prepare yourself before the actual speech.

Hawkish or Dovish Central Bank
While the central bank chairman isn’t the only one making monetary policy decisions for a country or economy, what he or she has to say is only not ignored, but revered like the gospel.

Okay, maybe that was a bit dramatic, but you get the point.

Not all central bank officials carry the same weight.

Central bank speeches have a way of inciting a market response, so watch for quick movement following an announcement.

Speeches can include anything from changes (increases, decreases or holds) to current interest rates, to discussions about economic growth measurements and outlook, to monetary policy announcements outlining current and future changes.

But don’t despair if you can’t tune in to the live event. As soon as the speech or announcement hits the airwaves, news agencies from all over make the information available to the public.

Forex analysts and traders alike take the news and try to dissect the overall tone and language of the announcement, taking special care to do this when interest rate changes or economic growth information are involved.

Much like how the market reacts to the release of other economic reports or indicators, forex traders react more to central bank activity and interest rate changes when they don’t fall in line with current market expectation.

It’s getting easier to foresee how a monetary policy will develop over time, due to an increasing transparency by central banks.

Yet there’s always a possibility that central bankers will change their outlook in greater or lesser magnitude than expected. It’s during these times that marketing volatility is high and care should be taken with existing and new trade positions.

Hawkish vs. Dovish Central Banks

Yes, you’re in the right place.

Tonight’s match puts the L.A. Hawks up against the N.Y. Doves.

You’re in for a treat. Wait, what?!

Whoops sorry, wrong subject.

We really just meant hawks versus doves, central bank hawks versus central bank doves that is. Central bankers can be viewed as either hawkish or dovish, depending on how they approach certain economic situations.

Central bankers are described as “hawkish” when they are in support of the raising of interest rates to fight inflation, even to the detriment of economic growth and employment.

For example, “The Bank of England suggests the existence of a threat of high inflation.” The Bank of England could be described as being hawkish if they made an official statement leaning towards the increasing of interest rates to reduce high inflation.

Dovish central bankers, on the other hand, generally favor economic growth and employment over tightening interest rates. They also tend to have a more non-aggressive stance or viewpoint regarding a specific economic event or action.

Hawkish vs. Dovish Central Banks
And the winner is…. It’s a tie!

Well, sort of.

You’ll find many a banker “on the fence”, exhibiting both hawkish and dovish tendencies. However, true colors tend to shine when extreme market conditions occur.

央行及其政策立场

我们已经知道,货币价格会受到一国利率变动的影响。

我们也知道,利率最终受到央行对一国经济和价格稳定性观点的影响,这会影响到央行的货币政策。

中央银行和其他的机构一样,也有一名领导人,我们称为央行行长或主席。投资者一般会对包括央行行长或主席在内重要官员的讲话高度关注,因为他们的讲话通常会透露出央行货币政策未来的方向。

获悉央行货币政策可能出现的转变对外汇投资者来说非常重要。幸运的是,央行在其货币政策转变之前,会和市场做很好的沟通。

关键在于,你是否理解央行对外所透露的信息,这可不是那么简单的事情。

所以说,下次等到美联储主席伯南克或欧洲央行行长德拉基发表演讲时,请认真聆听。在正式讲话之前,最要是先在专业外汇网站的财经日历上查看,这些重要央行官员发表讲话的具体或大致时间。

Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 7

尽管央行行长不是制订一国或某一经济体货币政策的唯一人员,但央行行长的讲话我们绝对不能忽视。

听起来似乎有点有点夸张,但是,你应该了解了其中的重点。

并不是所有的央行官员和央行行长具有同等的地位。

央行官员的讲话会对市场造成较大影响,所以在某一央行官员发表讲话或声明后,请仔细观察一下外汇市场的明显波动情况。

他们的讲话可能会涉及到货币政策的方方面面,比如说加息、降息或维持利率不变、降低或上调经济增长预估等。

但是,如果你不能听到他们的实时讲话,你也不要气馁。在他们发表讲话或声明的同时,主要媒体都会做同步直播,而专业的外汇网站也会做文字同步直播。

货币分析师和专业的外汇交易者会对讲话内容保持高度关注,他们会仔细分析讲话或声明的措辞以及语言表达,当讲话内容涉及到利率、当前政策立场改变等方面时,他们会尤其警惕。

和市场会对经济报告或经济指标的公布作出反应一样,货币交易者也会对央行活动以及货币政策的变动做出反应,尤其是当央行决定超出当前市场预期时,他们作出的反应会更大。

随着央行决策对外透明度的不断增加,我们对央行货币政策在未来可能出现改变的预测也更为容易。

尽管如此,仍然存在央行政策的转变程度会超出或低于市场预期的情况。也正是在这种情况下,市场波动会更高,交易者也应该对手头头寸的风险控制保持更高的警惕。

鸽派和鹰派

在货币政策立场方面,央行官员可以分为鸽派和鹰派两大类,这主要取决于它们对当前经济形势的判断。

当央行官员支持采取加息以对抗通胀时,我们称它们为鹰派官员,尽管这样做会对经济增长和就业造成不利影响。

比如说,英国央行暗示通胀正对经济造成威胁。如果英国央行通过官方声明表达通过加息来抑制通胀的倾向,那么英国央行立场则表现为鹰派。

另一方面,鸽派官员倾向于通过收紧利率来促进经济增长并提高就业人数。对于某一事件或行动,他们也会表现出非激进性立场。

Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 8

你也会发现,一些央行官员会保持观望态度,他们既会表现出鹰派的立场,也有可能展现出鸽派的倾向,不过,当极端的市况出现时,他们将表现出明显的鹰派或鸽派立场。

Fundamental Factors That Affect Currency Values

There are several fundamental factors that help shape the long term strength or weakness of the major currencies and will affect you as a forex trader. We’ve included what we think are the most important for your reading pleasure:

Economic Growth and Outlook

We start easy with the economy and outlook held by consumers, businesses and the governments. It’s easy to understand that when consumers perceive a strong economy, they feel happy and safe, and they spend money. Companies willingly take this money and say, “Hey, we’re making money! Wonderful! Now… uh, what do we do with all this money?”

Companies with money spend money. And all this creates some healthy tax revenue for the government. They jump on board and also start spending money. Now everybody is spending, and this tends to have a positive effect on the economy.

Weak economies, on the other hand, are usually accompanied by consumers who aren’t spending, businesses who aren’t making any money and aren’t spending, so the government is the only one still spending. But you get the idea. Both positive and negative economic outlooks can have a direct effect on the currency markets.

Capital Flows

Globalization, technology advances and the internet have all contributed to the ease of investing your money virtually anywhere in the world, regardless of where you call home. You’re only a few clicks of the mouse away (or a phone call for you folks living in the Jurassic era of the 2000’s) from investing in the New York or London Stock exchange, trading the Nikkei or Hang Seng index, or from opening a forex account to trade U.S. dollars, euros, yen, and even exotic currencies.

Capital flows measure the amount of money flowing into and out of a country or economy because of capital investment purchasing and selling. The important thing you want to keep track of is capital flow balance, which can be positive or negative.

When a country has a positive capital flow balance, foreign investments coming into the country are greater than investments heading out of the country. A negative capital flow balance is the direct opposite. Investments leaving the country for some foreign destination are greater than investments coming in.

With more investment coming into a country, demand increases for that country’s currency as foreign investors have to sell their currency in order to buy the local currency. This demand causes the currency to increase in value.

Simple supply and demand.

And you guessed it, if supply is high for a currency (or demand is weak), the currency tends to lose value. When foreign investments make an about-face, and domestic investors also wants to switch teams and leave, and then you have an abundance of the local currency as everybody is selling and buying the currency of whatever foreign country or economy they’re investing in.

Foreign capital love nothing more than a country with high interest rates and strong economic growth. If a country also has a growing domestic financial market, even better! A booming stock market, high interest rates… What’s not to love?! Foreign investment comes streaming in. And again, as demand for the local currency increases, so does its value.

Trade Flows & Trade Balance

We’re living in a global marketplace. Countries sell their own goods to countries that want them (exporting), while at the same time buying goods they want from other countries (importing). Have a look around your house. Most of the stuff (electronics, clothing, doggie toys) lying around are probably made outside of the country you live in.

Every time you buy something, you have to give up some of your hard-earned cash.

Whoever you buy your widget from has to do the same thing.

U.S. importers exchange money with Chinese exporters when they buy goods. And Chinese imports exchange money with European exporters when they buy goods.

All this buying and selling is accompanied by the exchange of money, which in turn changes the flow of currency into and out of a country.

Fundamental Factors That Affect Currency Values
Trade balance (or balance of trade or net exports) measures the ratio of exports to imports for a given economy. It demonstrates the demand of that country’s good and services, and ultimately it’s currency as well. If exports are higher than imports, a trade surplus exists and the trade balance is positive. If imports are higher than exports, a trade deficit exists, and the trade balance is negative.

So:

Exports > Imports = Trade Surplus = Positive (+) Trade Balance

Imports > Exports = Trade Deficit = Negative (-) Trade Balance

Trade deficits have the prospect of pushing a currency price down compared to other currencies. Net importers first have to sell their currency in order to buy the currency of the foreign merchant who’s selling the goods they want. When there’s a trade deficit, the local currency is being sold to buy foreign goods. Because of that, the currency of a country with a trade deficit is less in demand compared to the currency of a country with a trade surplus.

Net exporters, countries that export more than they import, see their currency being bought more by countries interested in buying the exported goods. It is in more demand, helping their currency to gain value. It’s all due to the demand of the currency. Currencies in higher demand tend to be valued higher than those in less demand.

It’s similar to pop stars. Because she’s more in demand, Taylor Swift gets paid more than Pink. Same thing with Justin Bieber versus Vanilla Ice.

The Government: Present and Future

The years 2009 and 2010 have definitely been the years where more eyes were glaringly watching their respective country’s governments, wondering about the financial difficulties being faced, and hoping for some sort of fiscal responsibility that would end the woes felt in our wallets. Instability in the current government or changes to the current administration can have a direct bearing on that country’s economy and even neighboring nations. And any impact to an economy will most likely affect exchange rates.

长期市场走势

有一些基本面因素会决定货币对的长期走势轮廓。以下所列举的即是这些因素中的最主要因素:

经济增长及其前景

我们先从经济以及消费者、企业以及政府所持的经济前景这一简单的因素开始讨论。很容易理解,当消费者预计经济将表现强劲时,他们会感到高兴,生活也会有安全感。公司更愿意花钱,并说道,“我们盈利不错,非常棒!我们该怎么利用这些资金呢?”

有钱的公司会选择花钱。而且,企业良好的盈利状况也会增加政府的税收收入。企业有钱了,作为雇员的广大消费者也自然钱包鼓鼓。企业、政府和个人都愿意扩大支出,这将对经济形成积极影响。

另一方面来说,经济表现疲软,所伴随的则是消费者不愿消费、企业赚不到钱且不愿投资,在这一情况下,政府成为唯一还在花钱的一方。你现在应该清楚了,正面的和负面的经济前景都会对货币市场造成直接影响。

资本流动

全球化、技术的进步、互联网的兴起令资本在全球范围内的流动成为现实。你只需要轻点鼠标,便可选择投资纽约或伦敦股票市场,或者是在开设一个外汇交易账户交易美元、欧元、日元以及其他货币。

大笔资金在国与国之间流动以寻求较高的回报率和较好的投资机会。保持资本流动的平衡很重要,对一国来说,资本可以是净流入,也可以是净流出。

一国资本净流入时,海外投资者投资该国的规模要大于从该国抽走的资金规模。而一国资本净流出情况则正好相反。

随着更多的投资涌入该国,对该国货币的需求随之会上升,海外投资者会卖出他们所持有的货币并兑换成投资国当地货币。这种需求会促使该国货币升值。

如果某一货币的供给较强,而需求较弱,该货币则倾向于贬值。当海外投资者和国内投资者都打算将资本从该国抽走时,如果你手头持有大量的该国货币,那你得警惕了,你最好考虑是否需要买入海外和国内投资者正在大举投资的国家或经济体货币,因为,几乎所有的人都在这么做。

国外资本钟爱投资具有高利率且经济增长强劲的国家。如果一国国内金融市场也在蓬勃发展,那更好。股市的欣欣向荣、较高的利率,这对国际资本来说是再好不过的事了。这些因素会推动国际资本的涌入,进而导致该国货币需求的增强,结果便是该国货币的升值。

贸易流动&贸易平衡

我们所处的市场是一个全球性的市场。一国会出售该国的商品给需要这些商品的国家(出口),与此同时,一国也会从其他国家买进他们所需要的商品(进口)。看看我们的屋内物品就知道了,可能绝大多数日用品,诸如家用电器、衣物、玩具等都是从国外进口的。

你每次购买某一物品,你都需要让渡你辛苦赚来的钞票。

当美国进口商从中国出口商那里购买商品时,他们会将美元兑换成人民币,而当中国出口商从欧洲出口商那里购买商品时,他们会将人民币兑换成欧元。

所有这些买入和卖出活动都伴随着货币的交易,进而对流入或流出一国的货币量造成影响。

Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 9

贸易平衡或净出口衡量的是某一特定经济体出口和进口之间的比例关系。它向我们展示了该国商品和服务的需求情况,最终也显示出了该国货币的需求情况。如果出口大于进口,则该国存在贸易顺差,净出口为正。如果进口大于出口,则该国存在贸易逆差,净出口为负。

我们将这种关系用公式直观的表现为:

出口>进口= 贸易盈余= 净出口为正
进口>出口= 贸易赤字= 净出口为负

贸易赤字可能会导致一国货币相比于其他货币走低。净进口国需要将该国货币兑换成国外货币以购买当地商品。当存在贸易赤字时,当地货币会被持续卖出以购买外国产品。有鉴于此,贸易赤字国货币需求较贸易盈余国货币需求相比要低。

与之相对的是,贸易盈余国货币需求更旺盛,这会促使该国货币升值。货币的币值强弱在很大一定程度上受到外界对该国货币的需求影响。拥有高需求货币较需求较低货币的币值要高。

我们拿流行明星来做个比方,这会加深你的理解。由于Lady Gaga的市场需求比小甜甜布莱尼的更高,所以她获得的演出费比布莱尼的要更高。

现任和未来政府

自2009年以来,市场更多的焦点转向了一些国家的政府,尤其是欧元区国家的政府。自欧债危机爆发以来,越来越多的欧元区国家陷入债务泥潭不能自拔,投资者希望,当局会采取负责任的财政措施来缓解市场的担忧。而各国政局的不稳却加速了危机的蔓延。

现任政府的不稳定,或一国元首的更替,都有可能对该国经济直接造成不利影响,甚至其邻国也难以幸免。政局的不稳对经济所造成的冲击很有可能也波及该国货币汇率。

Where to Find Forex News and Market Data

A quick Yahoogleing (that’s Yahoo, Google, plus Bing) search of “forex + news” or “forex + data” returns a measly 30 million results combined.

30 MILLION! That’s right! No wonder you’re here to get some education! There’s just way too much information to try to process and way too many things to confuse any newbie forex trader. That’s some insane information overload if we’ve ever seen it.

But information is king when it comes to making successful trades.

Currency price moves because of all of this information: economic reports, a new central bank chairperson, and interest rate changes.

News moves fundamentals and fundamentals move currency pairs!

It’s your goal to make successful trades and that becomes a lot easier when you know why price is moving that way it is. Successful forex traders weren’t born successful; they were taught or they learned.

Successful forex traders don’t have mystical powers (well, except for Pipcrawler, but he’s more weird than he is mystical) and they can’t see the future.

What they can do is see through the blur that is forex news and data, pick what’s important to traders at the moment, and make the right trading decisions.

Where to Find Forex News and Market Data

Market news and data are available through a multitude of sources.

The internet is the obvious winner in our book, as it provides a wealth of options, at the speed of light, directly to your screen, with access from almost anywhere in the world. But don’t forget about print media and the good old tube sitting in your living room or kitchen.

Individual forex traders will be amazed at the sheer number of currency-specific websites, services, and TV programming available to them. Most of them are free of charge, while you may have to pay for some of the others. Let’s go over our favorites to help you get started.

Traditional Financial News Sources

While there are tons of financial news resources out there, we advise you to stick with the big names.

These guys provide around-the-clock coverage of the markets, with daily updates on the big news that you need to be aware of, such as central bank announcements, economic report releases and analysis, etc. Many of these big players also have institutional contacts that provide explanations about the current events of the day to the viewing public.

Real-time Feeds

Real time feeds

If you’re looking for more immediate access to the movements in the currency market, don’t forget about that 80-inch flat screen TV in your bathroom!

Financial TV networks exist 24 hours a day, seven days a week to provide you up-to-the-minute action on all of the world’s financial markets.

In the U.S., the top dogs are (in random order), Bloomberg TV, Fox Business, CNBC, MSNBC, and even CNN. You could even throw a little BBC in there.

Another option for real-time data comes from your forex trading platform.

Many forex brokers include live newsfeeds directly in their software to give you easy and immediate access to events and news of the currency market. Check your broker for availability of such features not all brokers features are created equally.

Economic Calendars

Economic calendar

Wouldn’t it be great if you could look at the current month and know exactly when the Fed is making an interest rate announcement, what rate is forecasted, what rate actually occurs , and what type of impact this change has on the currency market? It’s all possible with an economic calendar.

The good ones let you look at different months and years, let you sort by currency, and let you assign your local time zone. 3:00 pm where you’re sitting isn’t necessarily 3:00 pm where we’re sitting, so make use of the time zone feature so that you’re ready for the next calendar event!

Yes, economic events and data reports take place more frequently than most people can keep up with. This data has the potential to move markets in the short term and accelerate the movement of currency pairs you might be watching.

Lucky for you, most economic news that’s important to forex traders is scheduled several months in advance.

So which calendar do we recommend?

We look no further than our very own BabyPips.com forex economic calendar to provide all that goodness!

If you don’t like ours (which we highly doubt), a simple Yahoogleing search will offer up a nice collection for you to examine.

Market Information Tips

Keep in mind the timeliness of the reports you read. A lot of this stuff has already occurred and the market has already adjusted prices to take the report into account.

If the market has already made its move, you might have to adjust your thinking and current strategy. Keep tabs on just how old this news is or you’ll find yourself “yesterday’s news.”

You also have to be able to determine whether the news you’re dealing with is fact or fiction, rumor or opinion.

Economic data rumors do exist, and they can occur minutes to several hours before a scheduled release of data. The rumors help to produce some short-term trader action, and they can sometimes also have a lasting effect on market sentiment.

Institutional traders are also often rumored to be behind large moves, but it’s hard to know the truth with a decentralized market like spot forex. There’s never a simple way of verifying the truth.

Your job as a forex trader is to create a good trading plan and quickly react to such news about rumors, after they’ve been proven true or false. Having a well-rounded risk management plan in this case could save you some moolah!

And the final tip: Know who is reporting the news.

Forex News

Are we talking analysts or economists, economist or the owner of the newest forex blog on the block? Maybe a central bank analyst?

The more reading and watching you do of forex news and media, the more finance and currency professionals you’ll be exposed to.

Are they offering merely an opinion or a stated fact based on recently released data?

The more you know about the “Who”, the better off you will be in understanding how accurate the news is. Those who report the news often have their own agenda and have their own strengths and weaknesses.

Get to know the people that “know”, so YOU “know”. Can you dig it?

新闻和市场数据

如果你在百度上搜索“外汇+新闻”,你会发现相关的搜索结果大约384万个,而你要是搜索“外汇+数据”,这一结果则更是达到637万个。

是的,就是这么多。这也难怪你需要到这里来学习相关的课程。在外汇领域,确实有太多的信息需要处理,也有太多的事情会困扰新进的交易者。当然,在这么多信息中,也有很多我们曾今见过的过时信息。

但是,我们要成为一名成功的交易者,我们需要秉承“信息为王”这么一个信念。

价格会因为以下所有信息的公布而出现变动:经济报告、央行官员讲话、利率改变等等。

你的目标是取得交易的成功,当你明白价格为什么会出现相关走势时,取得成功对你来说会更加容易。成功的交易者并非天生的,他们需要接受相关教育或不断的自我学习。

成功的交易者并没有什么神秘的力量支配着他们,他们也不能够看到未来。

他们能够做的是,从众多的外汇新闻和数据中,选取眼下的关键、重要数据进行分析,进而做出正确的交易决定。

在哪里获取市场信息?

你可以从诸多的途径获取市场信息。

在众多的信息来源中,互联网无疑是最为便捷的来源,通过互联网,无论我们在世界上的那个角落,我们都可以同步了解到最新的外汇资讯。但也不要忽视了纸介质媒体以及传统的广播媒介。

个人外汇交易者将会为为数众多的外汇网站、外汇投资服务、能够获得的电视节目而着迷,它们中的绝大多数都是免费的,当然,也有一些是要付费才可以获得。

互联网

传统的财经媒体

财经媒体可以海量来计,但是,我们建立你记住一些大型的财经媒体。

这些大型的财经媒体会全天候不间断的提供全球市场财经资讯以及深度报道。你需要对这些媒体所报道的重大事件保持高度关注,比如央行利率声明、重大经济报告的发布以及分析等等。这些大型的财经媒体也会就市场热点以及重大问题,对众多大型金融机构经济学家、分析师等权威人士进行采访,就这些热点、重大问题进行解读。

大型的财经媒体有:
● 路透
● 华尔街日报
● 彭博
● MarketWatch.com
Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 10
实时新闻源

如果你寻求了解货币市场走势的更多途径,也不要忘记你客厅所拜访的电视机。

财经类电视节目也会1天24小时、1周7天无间断的提供给你有关全球金融市场最新的市场动向。

在美国,最尖端的财经电视类节目当属彭博电视、CNBC、MSNBC,甚至是CNN,你也有可能收看一些BBC的电视节目。

对于我们获取实时数据的另一选择是你的交易平台。

多数交易商会把及时的新闻数据直接嵌入到你的交易平台软件中,你可以轻易获得有关货币市场上的最新事件以及新闻。由于并非所有的交易商都提供这一服务,所以你最好事先和你的交易商核实这方面信息。
Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 11
财经日历

如果你可以清楚的知道本月美联储公布利率决议的时间、市场对于利率的预测值、最终公布的实际值、以及结果对货币市场所造成的影响,是不是很棒的一件事呢?财经日历让这一切成为可能。

好的财经日历会让你查到不同月份,甚至不同年份的经济数据。

是的,经济事件和数据报告的公布非常的频繁,在没有财经日历提醒的情况下,一般人真的很难及时顾忌所有数据以及时间的公布。而数据和事件在短期内加速货币对的波动。

幸运的是,对外汇交易者颇为重要的绝大多数经济新闻的公布都会在数月之前提前预告。

市场信息的一些建议

请记住,你所阅读的报告都是具有时效性的。绝大多数信息都已经成为过去时,且市场已经对所公布的报告作出了充分的反应。

如果市场已经作出了相应的反应,你可能应该对你的当前交易策略进行调整。因为,“昨天的新闻”对于外汇交易来说,显然已经过时。

你也必须有能力确定,你正在分析的新闻是事实、传言、虚构的,还是他人的看法。Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 12
经济数据的传言确实存在于市场中,这种传言在数据公布的数分钟至数小时之前都有可能散播出来。传言会促使一些短线交易者做出反应,而这些短线交易者的行为也有可能对市场情绪造成持续的影响。

大型机构交易者通常也会受到传言的影响,在分散性市场中,很难知道消息的真实性,比如说现货外汇市场。鉴别消息的真伪永远不是一项简单的工作。

作为一名交易者来说,你的工作是制定好自己的交易计划,并在这些传言被证实是真实的或虚假的之前,对此类新闻或传言迅速作出反应。制定完备的风险管理计划可能让你免于不必要的损失。

我们最后的建议是:知道消息的最初来源。

对外汇新闻和媒体的关注度越高,你所获得的专业知识将越丰富。

你对新闻发布的来源了解得越多,你越有可能鉴别出新闻的准确性。那些报道新闻的人或机构有他们自己的日程安排,而且他们自身也存在长处和不足。

Market Expectations to News and Their Impact on Currencies

There’s no one “All in” or “Bet the Farm” formula for success when it comes to predicting how the market will react to data reports or market events or even why it reacts the way it does.

You can draw on the fact that there’s usually an initial response, which is usually short-lived, but full of action.

Later on comes the second reaction, where forex traders have had some time to reflect on the implications of the news or report on the current market.

It’s at this point when the market decides if the news release went along with or against the existing expectation, and if it reacted accordingly.

Was the outcome of the report expected or not? And what does the initial response of the market tell us about the bigger picture?

Answering those questions gives us place to start interpreting the ensuing price action.

Consensus Market Expectations

Market Expectations to Forex News

A consensus expectation, or just consensus, is the relative agreement on upcoming economic or news forecasts. Economic forecasts are made by various leading economists from banks, financial institutions and other securities related entities.

Your favorite news personality gets into the mix by surveying her in-house economist and collection of financial sound “players” in the market.

All the forecasts get pooled together and averaged out, and it’s these averages that appear on charts and calendars designating the level of expectation for that report or event.

The consensus becomes ground zero; the incoming, or actual data is compared against this baseline number. Incoming data normally gets identified in the following manner:

  • “As expected” – the reported data was close to or at the consensus forecast.
  • “Better-than-expected”– the reported data was better than the consensus forecast.
  • “Worse-than-expected” – the reported data was worse than the consensus forecast.

Whether or not incoming data meets consensus is an important evaluation for determining price action. Just as important is the determination of how much better or worse the actual data is to the consensus forecast. Larger degrees of inaccuracy increase the chance and extent to which the price may change once the report is out.

However, let’s remember that forex traders are smart, and can be ahead of the curve. Well the good ones, anyway.

Many forex traders have already “priced in” consensus expectations into their trading and into the market well before the report is scheduled, let alone released.

As the name implies, pricing in refers to traders having a view on the outcome of an event and placing bets on it before the news comes out.

The more likely a report is to shift the price, the sooner traders will price in consensus expectations. How can you tell if this is the case with the current market?

Well, that’s a tough one.

You can’t always tell, so you have to take it upon yourself to stay on top of what the market commentary is saying and what price action is doing before a report gets released. This will give you an idea as to how much the market has priced in.

A lot can happen before a report is released, so keep your eyes and ears peeled. Market sentiment can improve or get worse just before a release, so be aware that price can react with or against the trend.

There is always the possibility that a data report totally misses expectations, so don’t bet the farm away on the expectations of others. When the miss occurs, you’ll be sure to see price movement occur.

Help yourself out for such an event by anticipating it (and other possible outcomes) to happen.

Play the “what if” game.

Ask yourself, “What if A happens? What if B happens? How will traders react or change their bets?”

You could even be more specific.

What if the report comes in under expectation by half a percent? How many pips down will price move? What would need to happen with this report that could cause a 40 pip drop? Anything?

Come up with your different scenarios and be prepared to react to the market’s reaction. Being proactive in this manner will keep you ahead of the game.

What the Heck? They Revised the Data? Now what?

Too many questions… in that title.

But that’s right, economic data can and will get revised.

That’s just how economic reports roll!

Let’s take the monthly Non-Farm Payroll employment numbers (NFP) as an example. As stated, this report comes out monthly, usually included with it are revisions of the previous month’s numbers.

We’ll assume that the U.S. economy is in a slump and January’s NFP figure decreases by 50,000, which is the number of jobs lost. It’s now February, and NFP is expected to decrease by another 35,000.

But the incoming NFP actually decreases by only 12,000, which is totally unexpected. Also, January’s revised data, which appears in the February report, was revised upwards to show only a 20,000 decrease.

NFP table and revisions
As a trader you have to be aware of situations like this when data is revised.

Not having known that January data was revised, you might have a negative reaction to an additional 12,000 jobs lost in February. That’s still two months of decreases in employment, which ain’t good.

However, taking into account the upwardly revised NFP figure for January and the better than expected February NFP reading, the market might see the start of a turning point.

The state of employment now looks totally different when you look at incoming data AND last month’s revised data.

Be sure not only to determine if revised data exists, but also note the scale of the revision. Bigger revisions carry more weight when analyzing the current data releases.

Revisions can help to affirm a possibly trend change or no change at all, so be aware of what’s been released.

市场反应

对于预测市场可能对经济数据所做出的反应,并不存在一个万能的公式,而对于为什么市场会作出如此反应,也没有一个标准的答案。

你通常会看到,在数据公布后市场会作出最初的反应,这一反应通常会很短暂,但是波动巨大。

随后,将有第二波反应,此时,市场交易者们已经就数据或新闻报道进行了一段时间的消化。

也就是在这个时候,市场才会决定,所公布的消息或数据是一如预期或与预期相悖,以及是否应该做出相应的反应。

报告的结果是和预期一致呢,还是不一致呢?还有,市场最初的反应就整体经济的信息给我们发出的信号又是什么?

这些问题的回答有助于我们对价格的走势进行解读。
Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 13
共同预期

共同预期,是市场对即将公布的经济数据或事件的普遍看法。在数据公布之前,会有来自银行、金融机构的众多的经济学家对这些数据进行预测。

媒体对经济学家在内的众多市场参与人士的预测水平进行平均,最终形成了我们在报告或事件公布之前,所看到的预期值。

在预期值形成之后,市场参与人士对即将公布的数据便有了一个参考标准,他们会看,最终公布的数据,是符合预期、高于预期,还是不及预期。

符合预期,即最终数据非常接近预期或和预期一致

好于预期,即报告最终结果要好于市场预期

差于预期,即报告最终结果要比之前预期的要差

即将公布的数据是否和预期一致对外汇交易者来说非常具有参考价值,因为这会确定汇价的短期方向。最终公布的数据和预期水平差距越大,汇价在报告公布后出现巨大波动的可能性就越大。

不过,我们需要记住的是,外汇交易者都是非常精明的人士,他们往往会提前布局好。

一些外汇交易者会对市场预期的数据结果进行提前消化,他们会在报告公布之前进行相应的市场操作。

数据报告对价格走势影响的可能性越大,交易者对市场预期数据的消化得越快。你又怎么能说,当前市场状况就是这个样子呢?

真的很难说。

你也知道很难说,所以在数据报告公布之前,你需要站在比市场一般预期更高的高度来看待当前价格走势。这会让你思考,市场对数据的消化程度到底有多少。

在报告结果最终公布之前,会有很多不确定性因素的出现,所以,你的眼睛和耳朵都必须保持高度的警惕。市场信心在报告公布之前,会出现快速改善或恶化的情况,因此,你必须警惕汇价出现和当前走势出现不一致的情况。

最终公布的报告结果完全和预期不一致的情况也时有发生,所以,不要完全将赌注压在和大多数人预期一致的一方。当报告数据结果和预期出现明显不一致的时候,你会看到价格可能和绝大多数人之前的判断方向相反。

你需要做的是问问自己,“如果A情况出现汇价会怎么走?如果B情况出现,汇价会怎么走?其他交易者会做出反应,是否会改变他们之前的判断?”

你的工作也可以做得更细致。

你可以问自己,“如果数据结果低于预期的25%汇价会怎么走?价格会下跌多少点?导致汇价下跌40点,报告的结果应该是怎样的?”

你不见得非得这么问自己,我们要说的是,在报告公布之前,你需要将可能出现的结果都考虑在内,并为市场可能出现的一切结果做好准备。在结果公布之前采取防守态势,将让你始终处于有利地位。

关注修正后的数据

我们需要注意的是,经济数据会被修正。这也正式经济报告的公布流程。

让我们以美国月度非农就业数据(NFP)为例说明。正如该指标名称所说明的那样,该报告每个月公布一次,在公布的众多分项指标中,也包括上个月的修正数据。

我们假设,美国经济正在下滑,且1月份的非农就业人数为下降5万人,马上要公布2月份的非农就业数据了,市场普遍预计,2月份将再次下降3.5万人。

但是,2月公布的数据显示非农就业人数仅仅下降1.2万人,这要好于预期很多。同时,1月份的数据也做了修正,修正的数据出现在2月份的非农报告中,最终修正为仅仅减少2万人。

Fundamental Analysis 基本面分析 14

作为一名外汇交易者,你必须对数据修正的情况保持警惕。

如果你不将1月份修正数据考虑在内,你可能因2月份非农就业人数进一步增加1.2万人而采取负面的行动。

不过,将1月份数据被上修以及2月份数据好于预期两方面因素考虑在内,这可能正是市场信心出现回升的转折点。

当你看到最终公布的数据以及1月份修正后的数据后,你对美国就业市场的看法可能会和之前的悲观看法大相径庭。尽管就业人数仍在下降,但是降幅已经在缩减,而这正是就业市场企稳的表现。

我们不仅需要判断数据是否会做修正,也需要对修正后数据的大小保持警惕。当我们对当前数据进行分析时,修正的幅度越大,它对汇价走势的影响权重则越大。

修正后的数据能够帮助我们确定可能出现的趋势改变情况,或当前趋势并不会出现改变,因此,对于公布的数据,我们必须保持高度关注。