The Forex Trader’s Guide to Major Economies

The Forex Trader's Guide to Major Economies

Today we’re going to take a trip around the world, but it ain’t gonna take 80 days.

If you’re fast enough to keep up, we can probably get around in just 80 seconds!

…Not!

In any case, we’ll make sure you learn about the nitty-gritty of each major economy and what makes its engine go.

For each country that we will be touring, we’ll start off with a quick peek at the important facts and figures, followed by an overview of its economy.

Once that’s out of the way, we’ll visit the country’s central bank to find out some of their secrets. In this section, we will explore the powerful monetary policy tools central banks employ to control the country’s economy.

Hopefully, we’ll stumble into the room where they keep their printing plates and we can sneak out the back door and sell it on the black market.

We’re kidding – we’re here to teach you how to trade forex the legal way.

After that, we’ll discuss the important characteristics that differentiate that country’s local currency from all the rest, as well as hard-hitting economic indicators for that country.

To keep the trip interesting, we’ll be dishing some trivia every now and trading tactics that will prove useful later on when you go off on your pip-catching adventure!

And as we promised, this very exclusive field trip is covered by your scholarship. No need for travel visas and no need to buy a travel fanny. Although if you’re paranoid like Huck, then go right ahead.

Profile of Major Economies

Pack light, cause all you’ll need is your hunger for more learning. If you need a change of clothes, don’t worry, you can borrow one of Cyclopip‘s robes.

Are you ready?

Let’s get this show on the road!

主要经济体指南

Country Profiles 国家概况 1

今天我们要环游世界,不过用不着80天。

如果你能跟得上,我们只需要80秒就能转一圈了!

……或不能!

无论是哪种情况,我们都保证你能够了解主要经济体的基本信息以及推动经济前行的因素。

对于每一个我们将游览的国家,我们首先要快速浏览一下相关的重要事实和数据,然后了解它的经济概况。

我们将参观这个国家的央行,了解其中的秘密。在这里,我们将探索央行用于掌控国家经济的有力的货币政策工具。

希望我们能够溜进他们的铸币室,并偷偷将印钞板带走,然后在黑市上交易。

我们是开玩笑的——我们在这里要教你如何合法的进行外汇交易。

在那之后,我们将讨论区分一国货币同其他国家货币的重要特征,及该国重要的经济指标。为了让我们的旅途有意思,我们将时不时的进行一些小问答,并告诉你有用的交易技巧。

就像之前承诺的那样,这次独家实地考察的费用由你的奖学金支付,不需要旅行签证。尽管你可能十分多疑,也一直跟着往下走吧。

Country Profiles 国家概况 2
 
轻装出发,因为你所需要的就是你对知识的渴求。

准备好了吗?

我们一起上路吧。

United States of America

The United States of America is comprised of 50 states and a federal district. Majority of the country could be found in North America, but the United States also has some territories in the Pacific.

Since its independence from the U.K. on the Fourth of July back in 1776, the U.S. has become an economic superpower not just in the West but also in the whole world.

Being the world’s largest economy, the U.S. plays a serious role in the global market. Just about any economic development in the U.S., such as a rise or fall in consumer spending or an affair by its President that is made public, could create quite a hefty impact on economies all over the world!

United States of America

United States: Facts, Figures, and Features

United States Flag

  • Neighbors: Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Cuba
  • Size: 3,794,101 square miles
  • Population: 309,349,689
  • Density: 87.4 people per square mile
  • Capital City: Washington, D.C.
  • Head of Government: President Barack Obama
  • Famous Actors: Sandra Bullock, Will Smith, Johnny Depp, Halle Berry
  • Currency: U.S. Dollar (USD)
  • Main Imports: Industrial supplies (crude oil, etc.), capital goods (computers, telecom equipments, automobile parts, office machines, electric power machinery), consumer goods (automobile, clothing, medicines, furniture, toys), and agricultural products
  • Main Exports: Capital goods (transistors, aircraft, automobile parts, computers, telecom equipment), industrial supplies (organic chemicals), consumer goods (automobiles, medicines), agricultural products (soybeans, fruit, corn) , Barbies, Xbox consoles, and Apple iPods
  • Import Partners: China (19%), Canada (14.1%), Mexico (12%), Japan (6.4%), Germany (4.7%)
  • Export Partners: Canada (18.9%), Mexico (14%), China (7.2%), and Japan (4.5%)
  • Time Zones: GMT -10, GMT -9, GMT -8, GMT -7, GMT -6, GMT -5
  • Website: https://www.usa.gov

Economic Overview

The U.S. is widely considered to be the richest country in the world, producing about $16.24 trillion in output in 2012. It ranked 13th in 2012 in terms of per capita income – that’s just the country’s total income divided by its population – of about $51,700 in a year.

The U.S.’s main industries are aircrafts, automobiles, transistors, telecom equipments, and other industrial materials. Although it might seem that the US economy is heavily oriented towards the manufacturing physical goods, 70% of its output actually comes from the services sector!

Speaking of trade, one key element of the U.S. economy is that the country is notorious for running huge trade deficits (i.e., the total value of goods flowing in to the country is more than the total value of those going out).

The U.S. is also home to the New York Stock Exchange, which is the largest stock exchange in the world. It is also home to the world’s largest bond market, with a market capitalization of over $31 trillion and over $822 billion in bonds traded daily on average.

Being the top economy in the world in today’s globalized market, any domestic event affecting the U.S. also has the potential to affect markets around the world… Yes, even the foreign exchange market!

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The Federal Reserve Board, more commonly called the Fed, is the U.S.’s main governing body when it comes to setting and implementing monetary policy.

Monetary policy is just the way the Fed controls the availability and supply of money in the economy and what makes the Fed special from other central banks is that its objectives are based on a longer-term effects of its monetary policy.

The Fed has two main objectives. The first one is keeping the prices of consumer goods and services stable and the second one is making sure that there is sustainable economic growth.

In other words, the Fed just wants to make sure that yo’ Benjies doesn’t lose value and yo’ momma and poppa have jobs!

Within the Fed is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Currently led by Fed Governor Janet Yellen, the FOMC is tasked to make sound and rational decisions on monetary policy.

The FOMC has two main weapons to use in its battle against inflation and achieve its long-term objectives: open market operations and the Fed’s Funds Rate.

The Fed’s first line of defense, its open market operations, is the buying or selling of government financial instruments like securities, notes and bonds.

The Feds Funds Rate, its stronger, more obvious double-barreled shotgun, is the interest rate the Fed offers other commercial banks.

Now, the one accountable for fiscal policy decisions is the U.S. Treasury. Fiscal policy is the use of government spending or tax collection to influence the direction of the economy.

To encourage business activity, the U.S. Treasury, for instance, could choose to lower taxes and to allot more budget on capital infrastructures like highways, schools, broadband, secret military ninja bases, etc. On the other hand, if inflation starts to get out of hand, it could increase tax rates and cut spending.

Getting to Know the USD

Did you know that the nickname “Buck” for the U.S. dollar originated from buckskin, which was a common medium of exchange when the early American settlers traded with the Indians?

Even after paper currency replaced buckskin in the barter system, people still refer to the medium of exchange as bucks! Check out these forex-related properties of the buck:

Liquidity is my thing!

A ginormous amount of currency transactions every day involves the USD. Commodities like gold and crude oil are also denominated in dollars. During the Asian session alone, the dollar takes up around 93% of all the currency transactions!

To put this in perspective, take the New York Stock Exchange and the U.S. bond market for example. The value of the companies listed in the NYSE amounts to $28.5 trillion, about 78% of the size of the world’s $36.6 trillion stock market.

Similarly, of the $82.2 trillion value of the global bond market, the U.S. takes up $31.2 trillion. Every single transaction there, in some way, involves the USD. How’s THAT for liquidity?

The Fed and the U.S. government believe I should remain strong

Over the past few decades, the Fed and the U.S. Treasury have kept a “strong dollar” policy. They believe that monetary and fiscal policy should be geared towards a strong exchange rate of the USD, as it would benefit the U.S. and the rest of the world.

The currencies of many emerging countries rely on me to determine their value

How often have you heard the phrase, the dollar is the world’s reserve currency? Well, the reason behind this is that some countries actually peg their currencies against the dollar!

When a country does this, the government agrees to buy or sell their currency at a fixed priced versus the dollar. While the government can increase and decrease the supply of money, they are still subject to having the equivalent amount of dollars in reserve.

This process magnifies the importance of the dollar around the world, because this means that some economies are entirely dependent on the dollar!

If the dollar’s value were to stage a massive fall, it would produce a wide-reaching negative effect in all the other countries that are pegged their currency on the dollar.

Important Economic Indicators for the USD

Non-farm employment change (NFP) – The NFP employment report measures the change in the number of employed people in the prior month.

GDP – The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is the measure of the country’s total value of all final goods and services.

Retail Sales – The headline retail sales report measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at a retail level. The core version of the report, on the other hand, excludes vehicle sales.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The CPI measures the change in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services. The core account excludes food and energy prices because of their volatile nature.

Personal Consumption Expenditure – This is very similar to the CPI report as it measures the price changes of US consumer goods. The reason why you should look at this report is because this is the one that the Fed looks at when making decisions regarding monetary policy. And we all want to be in cahoots with the experts right?

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Every month, the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment report. This index measures the attitude consumers have towards the economy. The more confident consumers are about economic conditions, the more likely they are to spend.

What Moves the USD?

The Gold Rush

Whenever the dollar is at risk of losing its value due to inflation, investors turn to gold for safety. Unlike most financial assets, gold maintains its intrinsic value. Gold is gold is gold – it’s the same everywhere! So when gold prices are rising, it could be a sign that the dollar is losing its appeal.

Economic Developments in the U.S.

Fundamentally, positive economic developments in the U.S. attract more participants to invest in the U.S. An investor would of course need to have some dollars to be able to transact in the U.S. So as the demand for U.S. investments increases, the demand for the greenback rises as well.

Capital Inflows and Outflows

With respect to Japan and London, the U.S. probably has the deepest and most advanced financial markets. This provides the many kings, sultans, billionaires, and heirs around the world many types of investments which they can choose from.

In order to invest in these American assets, investors would first need to convert whatever currency they are holding in to U.S. dollars. The capital inflows and outflows from the U.S. financial markets can have a significant effect on the value of the dollar.

Economic Developments Around the World

Since the USD takes up about majority daily currency transactions, just about any major development in the world (i.e. strong GDP growth in Australia, a stock market crash in Beijing, or a Godzilla attack in Tokyo) affects its short term valuation.

Bond Yield Differentials

With investors always looking for the best deal for their money, it is important to keep track of the differences in the yields of bonds of the U.S. and other foreign countries.

If investors see that bond yields are rising in foreign countries while yields in the U.S. are staying steady or going lower, investors will move their funds out of U.S. bonds (selling their dollars in the process) and begin purchasing foreign bonds.

Rumors on the Interest Rate Grapevine

Market participants pay attention to interest rates trends, and you should too.

If the Fed is expected to raise interest rates, this means that demand for dollar-denominated financial assets (like Treasuries) could rise, which would be bullish for the dollar.

If the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, it could lessen demand for these assets and we could see investors move their funds away from the dollar.

Since Fed officials usually drop hints about the central bank’s future interest rate moves, traders are all ears during policymakers’ speeches.

Trading the USD

USD as the Base Currency

USD/XXX is traded in amounts denominated in USD. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 USD and mini lot sizes are 10,000 USD.

The pip value, which is denominated in XXX, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of the USD/XXX, which would be 0.0001 or 0.01 depending on the pair being talked about, by the USD/XXX current rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in XXX. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 XXX. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 XXX. For example, if one pip is equal to 0.0001 and the current exchange rate of USD/XXX is 1.4000, one pip of one standard lot would equate to 14 USD.

Margin calculations are based in US dollars. With a leverage of 100:1, 1,000 USD is needed to trade 100,000 USD/CAD.

USD as the Quote Currency

XXX/USD is traded in amounts denominated in XXX. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 XXX and mini lot sizes are 10,000 XXX.

The pip value, which is denominated in US dollars, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of the XXX/USD (0.0001 or 0.01 depending on the pair) by the XXX/USD’s current rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in U.S. dollars. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 USD. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 USD.

Margin calculations are based in US dollars. For example, if the current XXX/USD rate is 0.8900 and the leverage is 100:1, 890 USD is needed in available margin to be able to trade on standard lot of 100,000 XXX. However, the as the XXX/USD rate increases, a larger available margin in USD is required. Conversely, the lower the XXX/USD rate is, the less required available margin is needed.

USD Trading Tactics

Now let’s put all these things we just learned and come up with some trade tactics for the USD.

Looking at differences in U.S. economic developments and economic data from other major economic is a good way to start off trading the USD. For example, a jump in the US retail sales and ugly results on UK’s employment situation report would be give you a reason to sell the GBP/USD.

The U.S. dollar index or USDX, which tracks the performance of the USD versus a fixed basket of currencies, is also a great barometer of the strength of the USD. By regularly looking at the U.S. dollar index, you can find some clues on where the USD is headed.

A USDX that is trending upwards could provide you the additional confirmation you need to take a short position on the EUR/USD.

Talks of a Fed funds rate hike, which signals the possibility of higher returns on US assets, encourage traders to buy up the USD. Well, don’t get left behind!

Taking note of the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, which is usually part of Fed officials’ speeches, could yield some clues about the direction of the USD.

Hawkish remarks could serve as signals to go long on the USD/JPY while dovish comments could serve as reasons to short the USD/JPY.

Americans

To stay updated on the economic developments in the United States, make sure you read Pip Diddy’s U.S. economic commentary every day!

美国

美国概况

美国由50个州和一个联邦直辖特区组成。该国的大部分领土位于北美洲,不过它还有部分领土位于太平洋。

自从1776年7月4日,从英国手中获得独立以来,美国成为了西方乃至世界的经济强国。

作为世界上最大的经济体,美国在国际市场中扮演着十分重要的角色。

Country Profiles 国家概况 3

美国:事实、数据及特点

Country Profiles 国家概况 4

邻国:加拿大、墨西哥、波多黎各、古巴

面积:3,794,101平方英里

人口:309,349,689

人口密度:87.4人每平方英里

首都:华盛顿

政府首脑:巴拉克?奥巴马总统

著名演员:桑德拉?布洛克、杰夫?布里奇斯、约翰?迪普、哈莉?贝瑞

货币:美元(USD)

主要进口商品:工业用品(原油等),资本货物(电脑、通信设备、汽车配件、办公设备、电力机械),生活消费品(汽车、服装、药品、家具、玩具),及农产品

主要出口商品:资本货物(晶体管、飞机、汽车配件、电脑、通信设备),工业用品(有机化工原料),生活消费品(汽车、药品),农产品(大豆、水果、玉米),芭比娃娃,游戏机和苹果播放器

进口伙伴:中国(27%)、加拿大(21.4%)、墨西哥(17.8%)、日本(8.7%)、德国(6.6%)

出口伙伴:加拿大(19.4%)、墨西哥(12.8%)、中国(7.2%)、日本(4.7%)

时区:西十区、西九区、西八区、西七区、西六区、西五区

网站:https://www.usa.gov

经济概况

美国是公认的世界上最富有的国家,2011年产值达15.09万亿美元。2011年国民平均收入——国民生产总值除以总人口——为每年48386美元,位列第8。

美国主要的产业包括飞机、汽车、晶体管、通信设备和其他工业用品。尽管看起来美国经济主要依靠制造物理商品,但实际上其70%的产值来源于服务业。

说到贸易,美国经济的一个重要特点就是贸易逆差巨大(也就是该国进口的商品的价值高于出口的商品的价值)。

美国是世界最大的股票交易市场纽约证交所的所在地。世界最大的债券市场也在美国,其市值超过31万亿美元,每日平均债券交易量超过8220亿美元。

作为当今世界全球化市场中的顶尖经济体,影响美国的国内事物也会影响全球市场……包括外汇交易市场。

货币和财政政策

美联储(FederalReserveBoard,或Fed)是美国主管货币政策的制定和实施的部门。

货币政策是美联储控制经济中货币供给的途径。美联储区别于其他央行的标志是它的目标是通过货币政策的长期作用实现的。美联储有两个目标,一是保持物价和服务业价格稳定,二是保证经济持续增长。

美联储的内部有联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)。目前FOMC由美联储主席伯南克(BenBernanke)领导,制定合理的货币政策是FOMC的要务。FOMC在应对通货膨胀,达成长期目标方面有两个重要武器:公开市场操作和美联储基金利率。

美联储第一条防线公开市场操作是指买入或卖出政府金融工具如证券、票据和债券。

在抑制通胀以及实现其长期目标方面,美联储有两大主要武器:公开市场操作以及联邦基金基准利率。

现在负责财政政策的是美国财政部。财政政策是指用政府花费和税收来影响经济的前进方向。

为了促进商业活动,美国财政部会选择降低税收和增加如公路、学校、宽带、秘密军事基地等基础设施的预算。反之,若通货膨胀无法控制,它将增加税率,减少开支。

了解美元

你知道美元的昵称“Buck”来自于鹿皮,早期美国定居者同印第安人交易时普遍使用的交换媒介吗?

尽管纸币代替了以物换物交易中的鹿皮,人们仍然将这种交换媒介称作buck!让我们来一起了解一下美元与外汇交易相关的属性。

流动性是我的特点!

每天的货币交易中有很大一部分都包含美元。商品如黄金、原油都以美元计价。即使在亚洲交易时段,美元就占到货币交易的93%。

为了让它更实际些,我们就以纽约股票交易所和美国债券市场为例。在纽交所上市的公司市值高达28.5万亿美元,占价值36.6万亿美元的全世界股市的78%。

类似地,在价值82.2万亿美元的全球债券市场中,美国占有31.2万亿。从某种程度上来说,每个交易都涉及到美元。那是怎样的流动性啊?

美联储和美国政府认为我应该保持强势

在过去的几十年中,美联储和美国财政部都坚持了“强势美元”的政策。他们认为货币和财政政策都应为强势的美元汇率服务,因为这不仅有利于美国,也有利于全世界。

新兴国家的货币靠我为它们定价

我们多长时间会听到一次下面这句话,美元是世界储备货币?其背后的原因是一些国家靠美元衡量他们的货币的价值。当一个国家这样做时,其政府同意以一个相对于美元固定的价格买入或卖出该国货币。尽管政府可以增加或减少货币供给,但他们要保证相应的美元储备。

这一过程反映了美元在世界上的重要性,因为它意味着一些经济体完全依赖美元。

如果美元价格大幅下跌,那么它将会对那些用美元衡量本国货币价值的国家带来深远的负面影响。

与美元相关的重要经济指标

非农就业人数(NFP):NFP就业报告衡量就业人数相对上月的变动情况

GDP:国内生产总值(GrossDomesticProduct)报告衡量一国终端产品和服务的总价值。
零售销售:零售销售报告以零售方式销售的产品总价的月度变化。核心零售销售不包括汽车销售。

消费者物价指数(CPI):CPI反映一篮子商品和服务的价格变化。核心消费者物价指数不包括食物和能源价格,因为它们价格波动频繁。

个人消费支出:这一指标同CPI十分相近,它衡量美国生活消费品的价格变动。你应关注这一报告的原因在于这是美联储制定货币政策时会用作参考的报告。我们也想和专家们一起不是吗?

密歇根大学消费者信心指数:每月,密歇根大学都会发布它的消费者信心报告。这一指数反映消费者对经济的态度。消费者对经济状况越有信心,他们的消费就会越高。

哪些因素影响美元走势?

淘金热

每当美元受通货膨胀的影响贬值时,投资者们都会为了安全转投黄金。不同于其他金融资产,黄金能够保持它的内在价值。黄金就是黄金,到哪都一样。因此金价上升表明美元在失去它的吸引力。

美国经济发展

美国积极的经济发展状况将吸引更多的投资者。投资者需要美元来完成交易。随着美国的投资需求的增加,美元的需求也会增加。

资本流入和外流

与日本和英国相比,美国有最深、最先进的金融市场。其中为世界各地的国王、苏丹、亿万富翁和继承人们提供了多种多样的投资方式义工选择。

想要投资美国的资产,投资者要把他们持有的货币兑换为美元。美国金融市场的资本流入和外流对美元价格的影响巨大。

世界经济发展

因为每天多数货币交易中都包含美元,世界的任何主要事件(澳大利亚GDP增长迅猛,中国股市崩盘,或是日本受到哥斯拉攻击)都会影响美元的短期价格变动。

债券收益差异

投资者都会寻找对自己有利的交易,因此了解美国和其他国家的债券收益十分重要。

如果投资者发现外国的债券收益上涨,而美国的债券收益不变或下降,则投资者会将他们的钱从美国债券中抽出(同时卖掉他们手中的美元),买入外国的债券。

利率变动消息

市场参与者会关注利率走向,你也应该如此。

如果美联储预计会提高利率,那么对以美元标价的金融资产(如美国国债)的需求就会增加,美元看涨。

如果美联储预计会降低利率,对以美元标价的金融资产(如美国国债)的需求就会减少,投资者会将他们的资金抽离美元。

因为美联储官员通常会对央行未来的利率变动给出提示,因此交易者要注意听他们的讲话。

美元交易

美元作为基础货币

美元/XXX交易数量是以美元衡量的。一标准手是10万美元,迷你手是1万美元。

每点价值以XXX度量,小数点后四位或后两位即为一点,通常,日元货币对小数点后两位为一点。

收益和损失以XXX标价。对于一标准手,每一点的变动价值为10XXX。对于一迷你手来说,每一手的变动为1XXX。比如说,美元/XXX当前汇率是1.4000,那么,一标准手一点的价值就为14美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。在100:1的杠杆下,交易100,000美元的美元/加元,需要1,000美元。

美元作为报价货币

XXX/美元是以XXX定价交易的。一标准手是10万XXX,迷你手是1万XXX。

每点价值以美元标价,以XXX/美元表示的汇率中,小数点后四位或两位为一点。

收益和损失以美元标价。1标准手情况下,每变动一点的价值是10美元;对于迷你手来说,每变动一点的价值是1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。比如说,如果XXX/美元当前汇率是0.8900,杠杆比例为100:1,交易一标准手所需的最低保证金应该为890美元。不过,随着XXX/美元汇率的上涨,对美元保证金的需求量将随之增加。反之,所需美元保证金量将降低。

美元交易技巧

现在让我们放下之前所学的,来看看一些美元的交易技巧。

观察美国经济发展和别国经济发展数据之间的差异是进行美元交易的一个很好的开始。例如,美国零售销售的增加和美国就业状况的恶化给了你卖掉英镑/美元很好的理由。

美元指数(USDX)追踪的是美元相对于一篮子货币的表现,是反映美元强弱的气压计。通过定期查看美元指数,你可以找出美元波动的方向。美指的上升趋势表明你需要做欧元/美元空头交易。

有关联邦基金基准利率将上调的讲话表明,美国的资产可能会出现高收益,促使投资者尽量购买美元。别被落在了后面!

我们需留意美联储货币政策的前景,这通常是美联储官员讲话的一部分,它通常会为你提供美元走向的线索。

鹰派言论可以作为做多美元/日元的信号,而鸽派言论则可作为卖出美元/日元的信号。

Country Profiles 国家概况 5

Euro Zone

The European Union (EU) is a brotherhood of 28-member states which started from a tiny gang of six neighboring states in 1951. By the magical powers of the Treaty of Maastricht, it then grew into a large economic and political bloc, making it the largest economic region in the world. Talk about playing a huge role in international trade and global economic affairs!

Among these EU member states, eighteen countries adopted the euro (EUR) as their common currency. These nations comprise the euro zone, which is also called the European Monetary Union (EMU) or Euroland.

Members of this elite club are: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.

Aside from adopting a common currency, these nations also share the same monetary policy set by the European Central Bank (ECB).

European Union

Euro zone: Facts, Figures, and Features

European Union Flag

  • Member Nations: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain
  • Size: 1,691,658  square miles
  • Population: 505,665,73
  • Density: 300.9 people per square mile
  • Head of European Commission: Jose Manuel Barroso
  • Head of European Parliament: Martin Schulz
  • Head of European Council: Herman Van Rompuy
  • Currency: Euro (EUR)
  • Main Imports: Machinery, vehicles, aircraft, plastics, crude oil, chemicals, textiles, metals
  • Main Exports: Machinery, motor vehicles, aircraft, plastics, pharmaceuticals and other chemicals, Antonio Banderas, Penelope Cruz, Jean-Claude “The Muscles from Brussels” van Damme
  • Imports partners: China 15.89%, U.S. 11.97%, Russia 11.22%, Norway 6.13%, Switzerland 5.14%
  • Exports partners: U.S. 19.07%, Russia 8.03%, Switzerland 7.49%, China 6%, Turkey 4.14%
  • Time Zones: GMT, GMT+1, GMT+2
  • Website: https://www.europa.eu

Economic Overview

The euro zone, which comprises more than half of the nations in the EU, ranks as the largest economy with a GDP of $18.45 trillion in 2011. Being a services-oriented economy, services account for a whopping 70% of its GDP!

On top of that, the euro zone takes pride in being the second most attractive investment market for domestic and international investors.

As an economic union, the euro zone has a standardized system of laws, particularly for trade. The size of their entire economy makes the euro zone a major player in the international trade arena.

Because the individual countries are grouped as one entity, it enables them to facilitate trade easier, mostly with its number one trade partner, the U.S.

This active participation in international trade also has a significant impact on the role of the EUR as a reserve currency.

This is because countries who transact with the euro zone need to have a significant amount of reserve currencies in order to reduce exchange rate risk and minimize transaction costs.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The European Central Bank (ECB) acts as the governing body for the monetary policy of the EU. Led by the current ECB President Mario Andretti… errr, we mean Mario Draghi, the Executive Board also consists of the ECB Vice President and four other policymakers.

Along with the top guns from the national central banks within the euro zone, they make up the ECB Governing Council who vote on monetary policy changes.

The main objective of the ECB is to maintain price stability in the entire region – quite a tall order! To achieve this goal, the euro zone signed the Maastricht Treaty which applied a certain set of criteria for the member nations. Here are some of the requirements:

  • The nation’s inflation rate must not exceed the average inflation of the three best performing (lowest inflation rates) states by more than 1.5%.
  • Their long-term interest rates must not exceed the average rates of these low-inflation states by more than 2%.
  • Exchange rates must stay within the range of the exchange rate mechanism for at least a couple of years.
  • Their government deficit must be less than 3% of their GDP.

If a nation fails to meet these conditions, they are penalized with a hefty fine. Yikes!

The ECB also makes use of their minimum bid rate and open market operations as their monetary policy tools. The ECB minimum bid rate or repo rate is the rate of return the central bank offers to the central banks of its member states. They make use of this rate to control inflation.

Open market operations, on the other hand, are used to manage interest rates, control liquidity, and establish monetary policy stance. Such operations are conducted through buying or selling of government securities in the market.

In order to increase liquidity, the ECB buys securities and pays with euros, which then get circulated. Conversely, to mop up excess liquidity, the ECB sells securities in exchange for euros.

Other than making use of those monetary policy tools, the ECB can also opt to intervene in the foreign exchange market to further cap inflation. Because of this, traders pay close attention to comments from the Governing Council members since these could impact the EUR.

Getting to Know the euro

Aside from being dubbed the anti-dollar, the euro is also nicknamed “fiber.” Some say that this nickname was derived from the Trans-Atlantic fiber optic, which was used for communication, while some argue that it was from the paper used to print European banknotes way back then! Here are some of the other characteristics of the euro.

They call me the Anti-Dollar!

With the euro popularly known as the anti-dollar, EUR/USD is the most actively traded currency pair. As such, it is also the most liquid of the major pairs and offers the lowest pip spread.

I’m busy during the London session…

The euro is most active during 8:00 am GMT, at the beginning of the London session. It often has little movement during the latter half of the U.S. session, around 5:00 pm GMT.

…and I’ve had a few relationships.

EUR/USD is often linked to the movement of capital markets, such as bonds and equities. It is negatively correlated to the movement of the S&P 500, which represents the performance of the U.S. stock market.

This correlation was thrown out of sync after the 2007 financial crisis though. Now, EUR/USD has a slightly positive correlatoin with the S&P 500.

EUR/USD is also negatively correlated to USD/CHF, reflecting how the Swiss Franc moves in almost perfect tandem with the euro.

Important Economic Indicators for the euro

Gross Domestic Product – Gross domestic product is the central measure of economic growth in the region. Since Germany is the largest economy in the euro zone, its GDP tends to move the euro the most.

Employment Change – The euro is also sensitive to changes in employment, particularly in the euro zone’s largest economies like Germany and France.

German Industrial Production – This measures the change in volume of output from Germany’s manufacturing, mining, and quarrying industries. Because of this, it reflects the short-term strength of German industrial activity.

German IFO Business Climate Survey – This is one of the country’s key business surveys. Conducted monthly, this takes into the account the current business situation of Germany as well as expectations for future conditions.

Budget Deficits – Recall that one of the criterias in the Maastricht Treaty requires that euro zone economies keep their debt-to-GDP ratio below 60% and their deficit less than 3% of its annual GDP. Failure to achieve these targets could result to fiscal instability in the euro zone.

Consumer Price Index – Since one of the goals of the ECB is to maintain price stability, they keep an eye on inflation indicators such as the CPI. If the annual CPI deviates from the central bank target, the ECB could make use of its monetary policy tools to keep inflation in check.

What Moves the EUR?

Euro zone Fundamentals

Reports of strong economic performance by the euro zone as a whole, or by its member nations, can boost the euro higher. For instance, better than expected GDP reports from Germany or France could encourage traders to be bullish on the euro.

Uncle Sam’s Groovy Moves

Sudden changes in market sentiment, buoyed mostly by U.S. economic data, tend to have a huge impact on EUR/USD.

Being considered the anti-dollar, the euro is also swayed by talks of reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar. Euro as the new reserve currency, anyone?

Differences in Rates of Return

Bond spread between 10-year U.S. government bonds and 10-year Bunds (German bonds) usually indicate the direction of EUR/USD.

If the difference between the yields of the U.S. bonds and Bunds widens, EUR/USD moves in favor of the currency with the higher yield.

Similar to bond yields, interest rate differentials also serve as an excellent indicator for the EUR/USD movement. For instance, traders usually compare the Euribor futures rate with the Eurodollar futures rate.

Just to clear things up: “Euribor” is an acronym that stands for Euro interbank offer rate, which is the rate Euro zone banks use for inter-bank transactions, while Eurodollars are deposits denominated in U.S. dollars.

Trading EUR/USD

EUR/USD is traded in amounts denominated in euros. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 EUR and mini lot sizes are 10,000 EUR.

The pip value, which is denominated in U.S. dollars, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of EUR/USD (that’s 0.0001) by EUR/USD’s rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in U.S. dollars. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 USD. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 USD.

Margin calculations are based in US dollars. For instance, if the current EUR/USD rate is 1.4000 and the leverage is 100:1, it will take $1,400.00 USD in available margin to be able to trade one standard lot position of 100,000 EUR.

As EUR/USD’s rate increases, a larger available margin in U.S. dollars is required. The lower EUR/USD’s rate, the lower the required available margin in U.S. dollars.

EUR/USD Trading Tactics

Pro-euro moves, which typically take place upon the release of strong economic figures from the euro zone, create opportunities for long EUR/USD trades.

Anti-euro moves, which usually occur when weak euro zone economic reports are released, provide basis for a short EUR/USD trade.

Since EUR/USD usually acts as a measure of traders’ view on the U.S. dollar, sensing the direction of the U.S. dollar could create some trade strategies for EUR/USD.

For instance, if traders are expected to buy the dollar if the U.S. retail sales report prints better-than-expected results, you could look for an opportunity to short EUR/USD.

Aside from waiting for EUR/USD pair to retest or break significant support and resistance levels, taking a trade based on retracements also works for this pair.

EUR/USD is highly susceptible to retracements, which means that setting short or long orders at significant Fibonacci levels could yield some pips. By catching retracements, one may be able to enter the trade at a better price than just simply jumping in the direction of the price movement.

If you’re a bit more adventurous, there are other euro pairs, such as EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, and EUR/GBP, that you can check out! Each EUR cross has cool and unique characteristics too.

For instance, EUR/JPY, which is more volatile than EUR/USD, tends to be more active during the Asian and London sessions.

EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF tend to be range-bound most of the time. The latter is more prone to large spikes though due to lower level of liquidity.

Spanish

 

欧元区

欧盟(EU)由27个成员国组成,它是由1951年6个邻国组成的联盟发展而成。受马斯特里赫特条约的约束,欧盟逐渐演变成了一个经济政治集团,是世界上最大的经济区,在国际交易和全球经济事务方面作用巨大。

在欧盟成员国中,有17个成员国选择将欧元(EUR)作为他们的统一货币。这些国家形成了欧元区,也被称作欧洲货币联盟(EMU)。

这一精英集团的成员包括:奥地利、比利时、塞浦路斯、爱沙尼亚。芬兰、法国、德国、希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、卢森堡、马耳他、荷兰、葡萄牙、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚和西班牙。

除了采用统一货币,这些国家同时遵循由欧洲央行(ECB)制定的相同的货币政策。

Country Profiles 国家概况 6

欧元区:事实、数据和特点

Country Profiles 国家概况 7

成员国:奥地利、比利时、塞浦路斯、爱沙尼亚。芬兰、法国、德国、希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、卢森堡、马耳他、荷兰、葡萄牙、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚和西班牙。

面积:1,669,807平方英里

人口:501,259,840

人口密度:300.2人每平方英里

欧洲委员会主席:巴罗佐(Jose Manuel Barroso)

欧洲议会主席:Martin Schulz

欧洲理事会主席:范龙佩(Herman Van Rompuy)

货币:欧元(EUR)

主要进口商品:机械、汽车、飞机、塑料、原油、化学品、纺织品、金属

主要出口商品:机械、机动车、飞机、塑料、药品及其他化学品、班德拉斯(Antonio Banderas)、克鲁兹(Penelope Cruz)

进口伙伴:中国15.98%,美国11.97%,俄罗斯11.22%,挪威6.13%,瑞士5.14%

出口伙伴:美国19.07%,俄罗斯8.03%,瑞士7.49%,中国6%,土耳其4.14%

时区:GMT,GMT东一区、GMT东二区

网站:https://www.europa.eu

经济概览

欧元区包含了欧盟半数以上的国家。在2011年,欧元区以9.4万亿欧元的GDP成为世界最大经济体。欧元区经济以服务为导向,服务业收入占GDP的70%。

除此之外,欧元区对国内和国际投资者来说是第二有吸引力的投资市场。

作为一个经济联盟,欧元区有一套标准的法律体系,特别是在贸易方面。欧元区整体的经济规模使其成为国际交易竞技场中一个重要的参与者。

因为多个国家作为同一实体出现,他们的交易得到了促进,尤其是和他们第一位的交易伙伴,美国之间的交易。

积极参与国际贸易使得作为储备货币之一的欧元作用重大。

这是因为在欧元区交易的国家需要大量的储备货币来减少外汇交易风险和缩小交易成本。

货币和财政政策

欧洲央行(ECB)是欧盟货币政策的主管部门。有央行行长德拉基(Mario Draghi)领导的行政董事会还包括1位副行长和4位政策制定者。同欧元区各国的央行高层一起,他们组成了欧洲央行管理委员会,委员会对货币政策的变更有表决权。

欧洲央行的主要任务是维持整个地区内的物价稳定——很高的要求!为了达成这一目标,欧元区各国签订了马斯特里赫特条约,其中约定了各成员国的行为准则。下面是其中的一些规定:

一国的通货膨胀率不得比表现最好(通胀率最低)的三国的通胀的平均值多出超过1.5%。

长期利率不得比这些表现好的国家的利率多出超过2%。

在一定年限内,汇率要处于汇率机制内。

政府赤字不得超过GDP的3%。

如果有国家未能达到上述要求,将会被处以一笔重大的罚款。

欧洲央行把调整基准利率和公开市场操作作为他的货币政策工具。欧洲央行的基准利率或再融资利率是央行给成员国央行的回报率。央行利用这一利率来控制通胀。

公开市场操作则用于掌控利率,控制流动性和表明货币政策立场。这些政策是通过政府回购政府证券实现的。

为了增加流动率,欧洲央行买入证券,支出欧元,然后使其流通。相反为了解决流动性过剩,欧洲央行卖出证券,换取欧元。

除了使用货币政策工具,欧洲央行也会通过干预外汇市场来降低通胀。因此,交易者们要紧密关注管理委员会成员们的言论,因为他们对欧元影响重大。

了解欧元

除了被称作反美元,欧元的昵称还有fiber。有人说这一昵称源于跨大西洋光纤(用于通讯),也有人认为它源于用以印刷货币的纸。下面是欧元的一些特点。

他们叫我反美元!

欧元是人们熟知的反美元,欧元/美元是交易最为广泛的货币对。同时,它们也是流通性最好,交易点差最小。

我在伦敦交易时间很忙……

欧元在GMT8:00——伦敦交易时间——最为活跃。再接下来的美国交易时间——GMT下午5:00左右——通常变化不大。

……我有一些关系。

欧元/美元的走向与资本市场,如债券、股票的动向相关。它与反映美国股市变化的标普500指数呈逆向相关关系。

在2007年金融危机后,二者之间的变化并不同步。现在欧元/美元同标普500指数呈现轻微的正相关关系。

欧元/美元的走向与美元/瑞郎的走向呈逆向相关关系,这表明瑞郎基本上与欧元成平行变动。

欧元的重要经济指标

国内生产总值:国内生产总值主要衡量该区域经济增长由于德国是欧元区最大的经济体,他的GDP对欧元变动的影响最大。

就业变化:欧元对于就业状况的变化也十分敏感,特别是对该区域内主要经济体德国和法国的就业变化十分敏感。

德国工业生产:该数据衡量德国制造业、采掘业的总产出。因此,它反映德国短期内工业活动的强弱。

德国IFO商业景气指数:这是该国重要的商业调查之一。该调查每月进行一次,研究德国商业现况和对未来状况的预期。

预算赤字:马斯特里赫特条约中有一条规定欧元区内的经济体要把他们的负债同GDP的比率控制在60%以下,赤字不得超过年GDP的3%。如果未能实现这些目标将导致欧元区财政波动。

消费者物价指数(CPI):由于欧洲央行的目标之一是维持物价稳定,他们十分关注通胀的指示器如CPI。如果年度CPI偏离了央行的目标,那么欧洲央行将利用货币政策工具来控制通胀。

什么使欧元发生变动?

欧元区基本面

欧元区整体经济表现良好,或其成员国经济表现良好,则欧元看涨。例如,超预期的德国或法国GDP报告将使投资者看好欧元。

美国经济的变动

市场情绪的突然变化,大多是受美国经济数据的影响对欧元/美元走势的影响很大。

作为“反美元”货币的欧元,也受到全球外汇储备摆脱美元资产,极力寻求多样化的影响,有人建议将欧元作为新的储备货币。

收益率的差异

美国十年期国债和德国十年期国债之间的收益利差会反映欧元/美元的走向。

如果两种债券之间的利差变大,则欧元/美元根据收益较高的货币的变化而变化。

与债券收益相近,利率之间的差异同样是反映欧元/美元变化的重要指示器。例如,投资者经常会比较欧元区同业拆借利率期货收益和欧元美元期货收益之间的差异。

注意:“Euribor”是欧元区银行同业拆解利率的缩写。该利率被欧元区银行用来进行银行间交易。欧元美元期货则是以美元定价的。

欧元/美元交易

欧元/美元交易数量是以欧元衡量或计价的。一标准手是10万欧元,迷你手是1万欧元。

每点价值以美元标价,以欧元/美元表示的汇率中,小数点后四位为一点。

收益和损失以美元标价。1标准手情况下,每变动一点的价值是10美元;对于迷你手来说,每变动一点的价值是1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。例如,如果欧元/美元的现有汇率为1.4000,杠杆是100,交易一标准手所需的最低保证金应该为1400美元。

欧元/美元汇率上升,需要的美元保证金数量增加。欧元/美元汇率下降,需要的美元保证金数量减少。

欧元/美元交易技巧

欧元看涨通常出现在欧元区强势经济报告发布后,给欧元/美元多头交易带来机遇。

欧元看跌通常出现在欧元区弱势经济报告发布后,为欧元/美元空头交易提供基础。

由于欧元/美元走势通常作为衡量交易者对美元态度指示器,了解美元动向会给欧元/美元交易提供一些交易策略。

例如,如果由于美国零售销售报告超预期,交易者将会买入美元,这时你应做空欧元/美元。

除了等待欧元/美元测试或打破重要的支撑或阻力水平,根据回撤进行交易同样也行得通。

欧元/美元对回撤十分敏感,这意味着在重要的斐波那契水平处做空头或多头交易同样会赚到钱。通过利用回撤,投资者将在进入交易时获得比根据价格变化方向跳动更为合适的价格。

如果你爱冒险,还有其他的欧元对,如欧元/日元,欧元/瑞郎和欧元/英镑,可供选择。每一个欧元对都有其独特之处。

例如,欧元/日元的不稳定性高于欧元/美元,在亚洲和伦敦交易时段比较活跃。

欧元/英镑和欧元/瑞郎的变化大部分时间都在盘整。由于低流动性,后者更容易出现大幅上涨。

Country Profiles 国家概况 8

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom is a land of many accents as it is actually composed of four countries – England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

Headed by the Queen, the U.K. is considered a constitutional monarchy, but is governed through a parliamentary system that is based in England’s capital of London.

The U.K. is also part of the European Union. However, the U.K. has refused to join the euro zone and is adamant about using the pound as its currency. Unfortunately, this means that having a Schengen visa won’t let you travel through the U.K., you have to get a separate visa!

United Kingdom

United Kingdom: Facts, Figures, and Features

United Kingdom Flag

  • Neighbors: Ireland, Germany, France
  • Size: 94,060 square miles
  • Population: 64,100,000 (22nd)
  • Density: 661.9 people per square mile
  • Capital City: London (population 8,308,000)
  • Head of State: Queen Elizabeth II
  • Head of Government Prime Minister: David Cameron
  • Currency: British Pound (GBP) or sterling
  • Main Imports: Manufactured goods,machinery, fuels, foodstuff
  • Main Exports: Manufactured goods, fuels, chemicals, tobacco, David Beckham, Simon Cowell
  • Imports Partners: Germany 12.6%, China 8%, Netherlands 7.5%, France 5.4%, U.S. 6.5%, Norway 4%, Belgium 4.4%
  • Exports Partners: Germany 11.3%, U.S. 10.5%, Netherlands 8.8%, France, 7.4%, Ireland 6.2%, Belgium 5.1%
  • Time Zone: GMT
  • Website: https://number10.gov.uk

Economic Overview

The U.K. is the world’s seventh largest economy and the third largest in Europe after Germany and France. As far as history shows us, they’re a force to reckon with. After all, it is Britain that started the Industrial Revolution.

The U.K. also had the world’s largest empire back in the day. So for the past 300 years or so, the U.K. has been a relevant world power. Now that’s what you call consistency!

In terms of trade, England is a net importer of goods with a consistent trade deficit. Its largest trading partner is the euro zone, more specifically Germany, which shouldn’t come as a surprise because Germany is a stone’s throw away across the English Channel.

Trade activity with the euro zone accounts for over half of the UK’s trading activity. The U.S., on an individual basis, still remains the U.K.’s largest trading partner.

Not only do the British have cool accents and hotties like Kate Beckinsale, it is also home to arguably the oldest major financial center in the world. We’re talking about London, boys and girls! Having a financial hub like London amplifies England’s place in world trade.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

Now here’s a little bit of trivia for all of you: The oldest central bank in the world is the Bank of England (BOE).

Back in the day, when England was on the verge of economic expansion, government leaders realized that they needed an entity to help facilitate international trade. Enter the Bank of England. In 1694, the BOE was founded to help facilitate trade and growth for England.

Today, the BOE’s main monetary policy objective is that of maintaining price stability while at the same time, fostering growth and employment.

As it is, the BOE is aiming for a target inflation rate of 2.0%, which is measured by the consumer price index (CPI). In order to meet this target, the BOE has been granted the magical power to change interest rates to levels that they believe will allow them to meet this target.

The group within the BOE that is in charge of determining interest rates is the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The MPC holds monthly meetings, which are closely followed for announcements on changes in monetary policy, including changes in the interest rate. Like all other things British, interest rates have a different name in England. In England, the interest rate is called the bank repo rate.

The main policy tools used by the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee are bank repo rate and open market operations.

The bank repo rate is the rate set by the BOE for its own operations in the market to help meet the MPC’s inflation target. Whenever the MPC changes this rate, it affects the rates commercial banks set for their savers and borrowers. This in turn will also affect spending and output in the economy, and eventually costs and prices.

Like other central banks, if the BOE raises the repo rate, they are aiming to curb inflation. On the other hand, if they lower the rate, they are aiming to stimulate growth in the economy.

When the BOE engages in open market operations, the BOE buys and sells GBP denominated treasuries and securities to control the supply of money. This is an alternative method to increase liquidity in the financial markets.

If the BOE feels that there is a need to stimulate the economy, they will “print more money” and inject this into money supply through the purchases of the government and corporate securities.

On the other hand, if the BOE feels like the economy has had enough candy, they will sell more securities, effectively “taking back” money from the economy.

Getting to Know the GBP

The GBP must be pretty popular kid since it has a lot of cool nicknames. Aside from being called the Sterling and the Pound, GBP pairs have awesome nicknames such as Cable (GBP/USD) and Guppy (GBP/JPY). Impressive, huh?

I like to bust a move…

GBP/USD is one of the most liquid currency pairs in the forex market. How come? Remember, London has long been a major financial center in the world. With major business transactions taking place every day, lots of moolah goes in and out of London.

Still, the GBPUSD only accounts for 14% of daily global trades, making it just the third most active pair traded. This is probably the reason why spreads on the GBP/USD tend to be a pip or two more than that of the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY.

… and traders like me because I’ve got some nice curves.

With so many big time corporations being based in London, there are many highly attractive investments to be found in the U.K. market.

Couple this with having some of the higher interest rates (usually) amongst the major currencies, investors may find British securities to be more attractive. In order to get their hands on these assets, investors would first need to purchase some GBP.

I’m nimble during the London session…

GBP/USD trading volume is the highest during the European session, with potential for strong moves during the New York session when key U.K. and U.S. data is released.

The Asian session doesn’t normally provide much movement as European traders are still in bed while U.S. traders have just finished their day.

… but be careful ’cause I can get kinda rowdy!

The GBP pairs are very prone to volatile moves because of its lower level of liquidity compared to that of the EUR.

With liquidity growing thin at certain times in the market, the GBP can get caught in one direction, especially if there are large buy or sell orders in that direction. Compared to other currency pairs, GBP pairs tend to react more strongly to surprise economic data releases.

Important Economic Indicators for the GBP

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The BOE looks at this account as a measure of inflation. It measures the change in prices of consumer goods.

Unemployment Rate – This is the measure of how many unemployed people there are in the UK economy. Analysts look at this account carefully because it could be a leading indicator of future spending. How come? Well, if a person has no job, he has no money. Without any money, nobody would be able to afford tea time!

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – This figure reflects the state of the UK economy. It indicates whether the economy is growing and booming, or if it is stuck in the English Channel and drowning.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – This index surveys business managers and asks them their view of the current economic landscape. Scores above 50.0 indicate improving conditions which may lead to expansion, while scores below 50.0 hint at possible contraction.

Gfk Consumer Confidence report -This report gauges consumers’ confidence about current and future economic conditions. The more confident consumers are regarding the state of the UK economy, the more likely that they will be willing to spend.

What Moves the GBP

Changes in Monetary Policy

Many investors look at the pound for higher yielding assets and for carry trade. Changes in the MPC’s interest rate alter sentiment towards the pound as it affects the yield of British securities.

In addition, changes in the bank repo rate also reveal the BOE’s outlook on the economy.

If the BOE officials feel that the economy is hurting, they will either expand quantitative easing measures or cut interest rates, which will signal to the public that the economy is unstable.

If the BOE feels that economy’s rise may lead to inflationary pressures down the road, they may cut back on quantitative easing or hike interest rates.

Developments in the euro zone and US

Like other currency pairs, GBP/USD is also heavily affected by developments in the euro zone and U.S. U.S. economic data directly affect investors and traders sentiment in the market. Good or bad data from the U.S. can either send market participants running to the GBP on increased risk appetite, or looking for safety in the USD on account of risk aversion.

The Spill Over Effect

The euro zone accounts for a majority of the U.K.’s trade relations. Because of this, you should also keep your binoculars ready to see any developments over in the mainland (Remember, the U.K. is an island!). Any bad news or poor economic performance could potentially lead to bearish sentiment towards the GBP.

Driven by Risk Sentiment

Albeit small, the GBP benefits from the fact that it boats a higher interest rate amongst other major currencies. When traders are in search of greater yields, they will look to the U.K. because of the potential of getting a higher return on their investments. When traders want to unwind their high-yielding investments and look for USD-dearest, they will start selling off the GBP.

Trading GBP/USD

GBP/USD is traded in amounts denominated in GBP. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 GBP and mini lot sizes are 10,000 GBP.

The pip value, which is denominated in U.S. dollars, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of GBP/USD (for GBP/USD, this is 0.0001) by GBPUSD’s spot rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in U.S. dollars. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 USD. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 USD.

Margin calculations are based in U.S. dollars. For example, if the current GBP/USD rate is 1.5000 and the leverage is 100:1, 1,500 USD is needed in available margin to be able to trade one standard lot of 100,000 GBP. Take note, a higher GBP/USD sport rate requires more USD in available margin, while a lower rate would need less USD for margin.

GBP/USD Trade Tactics

One way to trade GBP pairs is to take note of when key reports come out. GBP pairs tend to react more strongly to economic reports.

For example, if U.K. GDP figures were to come in much better than expected, it could lead to massive rally in the GBP. Even if you were to enter late, you could still grab a bunch of pips because GBP pairs really move a lot.

Be careful though – GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs are the most volatile among the majors. In fact, GBPUSD moves around 160 pips per day on average. Because the GBP is so volatile, you might want to set wider stop loss orders to withstand all the strong moves in the market.

UK

英国

英国有很多的方言,因为它由四国组成——英格兰、北爱尔兰、苏格兰和威尔士。

英国以女王为国家元首,是一个君主立宪制国家,但它实际上是由位于英国首都伦敦的议会体系管理的。

英国也是欧盟的成员国之一。然而,英国没有加入欧元区,而是坚持以英镑为本国货币。不幸的是,这意味着拥有申根签证的你不能前往英国旅行,如果你想去,你需要另外的签证。

Country Profiles 国家概况 9

英国:事实、数据和特点

Country Profiles 国家概况 10

邻国:爱尔兰、德国、法国

面积:94,058平方英里

人口:63,047,162

人口密度:670.3人每平方英里

首都:伦敦(人口8,615,000)

国家元首:伊莉莎白女王二世

政府首脑首相:卡梅隆(DavidCameron)

货币:英镑(GBP)或先令

主要进口:产成品、机械、燃料、食物

主要出口:产成品、燃料、化学制品、烟草、贝克汉姆(DavidBeckham)、考威尔(SimonCowell)

进口伙伴:德国13.1%、中国9.1%、荷兰7.5%、法国6.1%、美国5.8%、挪威5.5%、比利时4.9%、意大利4.2%

出口伙伴:美国11.4%、德国11.2%、法国7.7%、爱尔兰6.8%、比利时5.4%

时区:GMT

网站:https://number10.gov.uk

经济概览

英国是世界上第7大经济体,也是欧洲第三大经济体,仅次于德国和法国。历史告诉我们,它是需要纳入考虑范围的一股势力。毕竟,英国打开了工业革命的大门。

英国曾是世界上最大的帝国。在过去的300年间,英国都是重要的世界大国。这就是所谓的稳定性。

在贸易方面,英国是一个净进口国,有着持续的贸易逆差。它最大的贸易伙伴是欧元区,更确切的说是德国。

与欧元区的贸易活动占英国贸易总量的一半多。美国,从个体的角度来讲,是英国最大的贸易伙伴。

英国还是世界上历史最悠久的重要金融中心的所在地。我们指的是伦敦!拥有伦敦这样的金融中心放大了英国在全球贸易中的作用。

货币和财政政策

有一个小知识点你要记住:世界上最古老的银行是英国央行(BOE)。那时,英国正经历经济扩张,政府领导人意识到他们需要一个实体来帮他们促进国际贸易。由此英国央行诞生了。在1694年,英国央行创立,目的是促进贸易和增长。

现在英国央行货币政策的主要目的是维持物价稳定,同时增加就业率。

英国央行的目标通胀率是2.0%,通过消费者物价指数(CPI)来衡量。为了达到它的目标,英国央行可以改变利率水平。

英国央行中掌管利率的部门是货币政策委员会(MPC)。

MPC每月都会召开会议,并在会议后公布货币政策的变动,包括利率变动。和英国其他事物一样,利率在英国有个别名——银行再回购利率。

英国央行MPC应用的主要货币政策工具是银行再回购利率和公开市场操作。银行再回购利率是由英国央行根据其自身的市场运营状况制定的,目的是帮助达成通胀目标。每当MPC改变这一利率,商业银行的利率就会受到影响。这将影响经济的支出和产出,进而影响成本和价格。

同其他央行一样,如果英国央行提高再回购利率,它的目的是要抑制通胀。相反,如果它降低利率则表明它想要刺激经济增长。

当英国央行采用公开市场操作时,英国央行通过买卖以英镑定价的债券或证券来改变市场上的货币供给。这是增加金融市场流动性的替代方法之一。

如果英国央行认为需要刺激经济增长,它将“印更多的钱”,然后通过购买政府或公司债券使这些钱流入市场。

相反,如果英国央行觉得经济发展不错,它将卖出更多的证券,“收回”市场上的钱。

了解英镑

英镑一定是个十分受欢迎的孩子,因为它有不少别名。除了被叫作先令和英镑,英镑还被称作电缆(英镑/美元)和孔雀鱼(英镑/日元)。印象深刻,嗯?

交易活跃

英镑/美元是外汇市场上最活跃的货币对。为什么呢?记住,伦敦长久以来就是世界主要的金融中心之一,每天都有大量的交易,钞票频繁进出。

此外,英镑/美元占到世界日交易量的14%,使它成为第三大有吸引力的货币对。这也许就是为什么英镑/美元的点差比欧元/美元和美元/日元高一两点的原因。

收益较高

许多大公司的总部设在伦敦,英国市场中有许多极具吸引力的投资。

与此同时由于在主要货币中通常利率较高,投资者更加觉得英国证券十分诱人。为了买入这些资产,他们需要购买英镑。

波动时段

英镑/美元的交易量在欧洲时段最高,在纽约时段,当英国和美国方面数据公布时,英镑也存在潜在的巨大波动行情。

亚洲时段,它的变动不大,因为大多数欧洲交易商还在休息,而美国交易商也刚结束了一天的交易。

高波动性

英镑货币对倾向于较剧烈的波动,因为相对于欧元,它的流动性较低。随着市场的流动性变低,英镑被套牢,特别是有大量买卖的时候。与其他货币对相比,英镑货币对对预期之外数据的反应较为强烈。

与英镑相关的重要经济数据

消费者物价指数(CPI):英国央行以此衡量通胀。它反映日常消费品价格的变动。

失业率:该数据反映英国经济中失业人口的数量。分析家们通常会很仔细的研究这一数据,因为它是未来开支的领先指标。为什么呢?如果一个人没有工作,他就没钱。没钱,就没人去喝下午茶!

国内生产总值(GDP):这一数据反映英国经济状况。它将显示英国经济是繁荣增长,还是困在英吉利海峡里,溺水了。

采购经理指数(PMI):这个指数调查的是采购经理,询问他们对现有经济状况的看法。读数超过50.0表示状况改善,经济扩张,低于50.0则暗示经济有可能处于紧缩状态。

GFT消费者信心报告:这份报告衡量消费者对现有和未来经济状况的信心。消费者对英国经济状况的信心越高,他们就更愿意消费。

哪些因素影响英镑走势?

货币政策变动

许多投资者关注英镑是为了寻找高回报资产和套利交易。MPC利率的变动将改变市场对英镑的情绪,因为变动会影响英国证券收益率。

此外,银行再回购利率的变动反映了英国央行对经济前景的看法。

如果英国央行的官员觉得经济受挫,他们或者扩大量化宽松措施,或者降低利率,这将向公众发出英国经济不稳的信号。

如果英国央行觉得经济呈上升态势,将会导致通胀压力,那他们将减少量化宽松或增加利率。

欧元区和美国的发展

同其他货币对一样,英镑/美元受到欧元区和美国发展状况的影响。美国经济数据直接影响市场上投资者和交易商的情绪。美国数据的好坏可能会使市场参与者风险偏好增加,跑向英镑,也可能使他们趋向于规避风险,转向避险天堂美元。

溢出效应

欧元区是英国交易伙伴中十分重要的一员。因此,你也要时刻关注欧洲大陆的发展(记住,英国是岛国!)。任何不好的消息或不佳的经济表现都有可能导致英镑看跌。

受风险偏好影响

尽管少,英镑因利率高于其他主要货币而受益。当交易者寻求高收益时,他们将看向英国,因为他们的投资在此获得高收益的潜力较大。当交易者放弃高回报投资,他们将转向他们亲爱的美元,卖出英镑。

英镑/美元交易

英镑/美元交易数量是以英镑衡量的。一标准手是10万英镑,一迷你手是1万英镑。

每点价值以美元度量,根据英镑/美元的现价计算。

收益和损失以美元标价。对于一标准手,每一点的变动价值为10美元。对于一迷你手来说,每一手的变动为1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。比如说,如果英镑/美元当前汇率是1.5000,杠杆比例为100:1,交易一标准手所需的最低保证金应该为1500美元。不过,随着英镑/美元汇率的上涨,对美元保证金的需求量将随之增加。反之,所需美元保证金量将降低。

英镑/美元交易技巧

交易英镑货币对的第一个方法是关注报告发布的时间。英镑对经济报告的反应较为强烈。

例如,如果英国GDP数值高于预期,它可能会导致英镑大幅上涨。即使你进晚了,你也能获得收益,因为英镑涨了很多。

不过要小心——英镑/美元和英镑/日元是所有主要货币对中,波动最为剧烈的。事实上,英镑/美元平均每天变动160点。因为英镑波动太剧烈,你可能会想制定较宽的止损指令来抵抗市场的大幅变动。

Country Profiles 国家概况 11

Japan

Konichiwa! Located in East Asia, Japan is an archipelago of 6,852 islands, although a majority of its land mass is accounted for by the 4 largest islands.

Despite being a relatively small country, Japan’s capital, Tokyo, is home to 36 million hard working citizens, making it the largest metropolitan area in the globe.

Also, even though Japan is densely populated, the Japanese have one of the highest standards of living, while also having the highest life expectancy in the world.

Japan is also one of the most advanced and tech-friendly countries in the world. Can you imagine a world without the karaoke, the Gameboy or a Prius? That’s right – didn’t think so.

Also, did you know that the Japanese characters that make up Japan’s name mean sun-origin, and that Japan is often referred to as the “Land of the Rising Sun”?

Japan

Japan: Facts, Figures, and Features

Japan Flag

  • Neighbors: Russia, Korea, China
  • Size: 145,925  square miles
  • Population: 126,659,683 (10th)
  • Density: 873.1 people per square mile
  • Capital City: Tokyo (population 13,189,000)
  • Head of State: Emperor Akihito
  • Head of Government: Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda
  • Currency: Japanese Yen (JPY)
  • Main Imports: Petroleum, liquid natural gas, clothing, semiconductors, coal, audio and visual apparatus
  • Main Exports: Motor vehicles, semiconductors, iron and steel products, auto parts, Suzuki Ichiro, Sony PlayStation, Samurai swords, Mr. Miyagi
  • Imports Partners: China 21.3%, U.S. 8.8%, Australia 6.4%, Saudi Arabia 6.2%, UAE 5%, South Korea 4.6%, Qatar 4%
  • Exports Partners: China 18.1%, U.S. 17.8%, South Korea 7.7%, Thailand 5.5%, Hong Kong 5.1%
  • Time Zone: GMT +09
  • Website: https://kantei.go.jp

Economic Overview

Aside from being the video game capital of the world, Japan’s economy is ranked as the third largest as of 2011.

Since the end of World War II, Japan has been on a rampage, experiencing rapid economic growth, despite the fact that the country is mountainous and volcanic. Because of the laws of nature, this limits the growth of natural resources in Japan.

In order to make up for this lack of resources, the Japanese economy has become very export dependent, with exports amounting to more than $697 billion in 2013! Not only does it make up 14% of the country’s output, it’s also the sixth largest in the world!

Recently, Japan has been riding the cocktails of China’s massive growth. With Japan being the nearest major economy, Chinese demand has led to massive shopping sprees of Japanese products.

Not only does Japan have great food (how can you beat tempura and sushi?!), it is also home to one of the world’s biggest financial centers – Tokyo!

As you see in the movies, Japanese businessmen mean serious business! With so much money flowing in and out of Tokyo every day, traders and investors can use Japan as a proxy for what’s happening in the Far East.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

While the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been around since the late 1800s, only recently did the BOJ gain independence from the Ministry of Finance (MoF). It was only in 1998 that the Japanese government passed laws giving the BOJ control over monetary policy.

Take note that the Ministry of Finance still remains in charge of foreign exchange policy, which has led to tension and continuous differences between the two.

Normally, the government and the central bank are independent of each other – one should not have any influence over other. This is not the case for Japan. Even though the BOJ has gained independence from the government, there is a question of who really “wears the pants”.

The MoF has kept a watchful eye on the BOJ, pressuring it to pass policies that would help the yen hit the MoF’s foreign exchange targets. Similar to other central banks, the BOJ’s main objective is that of price stability. The ninja bankers at the BOJ make use of open market operations and interest rates changes to meet their goals.

One thing you should know about the BOJ is that for a very, very long time, they have kept rates at low levels, with the current rate sitting between 0.00% to 0.10%. Because the rate is already so low, the central bank cannot decrease the rate to stimulate growth or create liquidity.

For instance, in its efforts to fight deflation, the BOJ has whipped out its shurikens and has flooded the markets with money through unorthodox quantitative easing measures.

Quantitative easing measures are moves made by central banks in order to increase liquidity and money supply through the purchase of government securities.

This is sometimes called “printing money”, because the central bank literally creates new money from thin air in order to buy back their government securities. In theory, the increase in the money supply would lead to an increase in lending and spending.

Over the years, Japan has created liquidity in the markets by flooding the economy with various programs that let the BOJ buy or sell Japanese government bonds and bills.

Getting to Know the JPY

The yen is so hardcore that it didn’t want to be named anything else. It came into the foreign exchange market called the yen and up to now, it is still called the yen. The yen is the yen is the yen. It is also tied in currency crosses, especially against the EUR, GBP, and AUD.

Traders love me like the Japanese love their sushi.

After the USD and the EUR, the JPY is the most heavily traded currency, with USD/JPY also ranking as the 2nd most traded currency pair. Because of the role that Japan plays in international trade, there is need for the JPY in order to complete international transactions.

Are you ready for the Asian Sensation?

When investors think of Asia, they subconsciously think of Japan. With Tokyo being one of the world’s major financial centers, Japan is often representative of what’s happening in Asia.

Japan is normally a major trading partner of other Asian powers. If business is doing well in Asia, this is normally reflected by the Nikkei, the major stock exchange in Tokyo.

I’m always on the go…

With Japanese reports coming out during the Asian session, it is only natural that the yen trading is active during the Asian session (0:00 GMT).

The yen can also be active in other sessions depending on what economic data is released. This should be expected – it is part of Japanese culture, they do business around the clock!

…but I’m all for cheap thrills!

With many investors looking for the most bang for their buck, some have resorted to carry trade. With the JPY having the lowest interest rate amongst the majors, it is normally used in carry trade as a funding source.

The Japanese tend to think alike.

Japanese asset managers tend to make the same investment decisions. This leads to highly correlated positions, which means that it is likely to see trends develop.

I’m prone to breakouts…

One characteristic of yen pairs is their tendency to consolidate for quite some time, then break out in direction, then consolidate once again, then break out once again! Keep your eyes and ears ready because you never know when this might happen!

…and I have a love-hate relationship with China

With China emerging as a major power in the world, its influence on the JPY will continue to grow. If signs point to further growth in the Chinese economy, it may affect demand for the JPY.

How so?

As we’ve said, China is one of Japan’s major trading partners. Naturally, as Chinese businesses boom, they will need to order more from Japan. This in turn would increase demand for the JPY, causing it to appreciate.

Important Economic Indicators for the JPY

Gross Domestic Product – This measures the economic activity of Japan. It indicates whether the economy is red hot like lava from Mt. Fuji, or if it’s in the process of harakiri.

Tankan Surveys – These reports survey managers from a broad range of industries, questioning them on their views of the economy. Rising sentiment (scores above 0.0) indicate that Japanese businessmen expect business activity to pick up. Scores below 0.0 suggest otherwise.

Trade Balance – The Japanese economy is heavily export dependent. Falling export numbers could lead to a decline in economic activity.

Unemployment Rate – This measures the rate of unemployment in Japan. High unemployment could lead to a decline in consumer spending – how would they be able to afford their video games and anime??

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – In the past, the Bank of Japan has shown that they are not afraid to make moves to fight off deflation. If trends show that prices of samurai swords and shurikens continue to fall, it may lead to some surprise moves by the BOJ.

Core Machinery Orders – A large chunk of Japan’s exports are comprised of machinery orders. The rise or fall in core machinery orders could reflect the current status of Japanese trade.

What Moves the JPY

Investment Moves

Due to its low interest rates, the JPY has been considered as a good funding source for investments in other countries. This means that if traders and investors are scared, they will begin to unwind their positions in higher yielding assets. Once traders start unwinding these riskier positions (carry trades), they have to cover their short JPY trades by buying back the currency.

The BOJ effect

This doesn’t refer to those announced, scheduled effects. I’m talking about currency intervention! The BOJ and MoF keep special attention to the FX markets. With the Japanese economy being very export dependent, the value of the yen plays a key role in trade.

The BOJ doesn’t want the JPY to appreciate too much because it would make Japanese exports relatively more expensive. By keeping the value of the JPY lower, they can stimulate demand for Japanese products, which in turn, would benefit the economy.

Trading USD/JPY

USD/JPY is traded in amounts denominated by the base currency, the US Dollar. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 units of USD and mini lot sizes are 10,000 units. Many brokers now offer customizable lot sizes to as low as 1 unit.

The change in the pair’s value is denominated by the counter currency, the Japanese yen. Take note, for yen pairs it is the 0.01 decimal place. So, a change in value of USD/JPY from 95.00 to 95.01 is a move of 1 pip.

As with any currency pair, the change in value is denominated by the counter currency. The profit and loss is calculated in Japanese yen and then converted to the currency your account is based in. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1,000 JPY. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 100 JPY. For example, if the current exchange rate of USD/JPY is 95.00 and you want to trade one standard lot, then one pip would equate to 10.52 USD (see our Pips and Pipettes lesson on how to calculate pip values).

Margin calculations are based in U.S. dollars. For instance, with a leverage of 100:1, 1,000 USD is what is needed to be set aside in your account to trade 100,000 USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Trading Tactics

USD/JPY tends to follow short to medium term trends, which could last a few days. If you are maintaining a swing trade, that is holding a trade for more than a day, you can try to enter on retracements.

Once price begins to consolidate, you can close your position, and wait for another trend to develop. Take note that when price breaks out, it is likely that you will see a sustained move as traders jump back in on the trend.

Another tip to remember is that Japanese industrial companies normally set their orders at round figures, like 100.00 or 90.50. You should keep track of whenever price are near these figures, as they can serve as short-term support and resistance levels.

Finally, you should also keep an eye out other yen pairs like EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. If you see that one of these crosses is about to break a key technical level, it could unleash a fury of JPY buying or selling that will have a massive effect across the board.

Japan

日本

你好!地处东亚,日本是由6852个岛屿组成的岛国,它的主要国土由4个大岛组成。

尽管是一个相对较小的国家,日本的首都东京有3600万辛勤劳作的市民,使其成为世界上最大的大都会。

虽然日本人口稠密,但日本人拥有高品质的生活和世界最长的平均寿命。

日本也是世界上最先进,科技最发达的国家之一。你能想象没有卡拉ok、电子游戏或丰田节能环保汽车普锐斯的世界吗?没想过——那就对了。

此外,你知道“日本”的字面意思是太阳的源头,而日本常将被称作“旭日之国”吗?

Country Profiles 国家概况 12

日本:事实、数据和特点

Country Profiles 国家概况 13

邻国:俄罗斯、韩国、朝鲜、中国

面积:234,825平方英里

人口:127,368,008

人口密度:542.40人每平方英里

首都:东京(人口13,189,000)

国家元首:明仁天皇

政府首脑:首相野田佳彦

货币:日元(JPY)

主要进口:石油、液化天然气、服装、半导体、煤、影音设备

主要出口:机动车、半导体、钢铁制品、汽车配件、铃木一郎(Suzuki Ichiro)、索尼游戏机、武士刀

进口伙伴:中国22.1%、美国9.9%、澳大利亚6.5%、沙特阿拉伯5.2%、阿拉伯联合酋长国4.2%、韩国4.1%

出口伙伴:中国19.4%、美国15.7%、韩国8.1%、香港5.5%、泰国4.4%

时区:东九区

网站:https://kantei.go.jp

经济概览

除了是世界电子游戏之都,日本的经济也名列前茅,在2011年排名世界第三。

自二战结束后,日本经济经历了快速的发展。日本是一个多丘陵、多火山的国家,受自然法则影响,日本自然资源增长受限。

为了弥补资源的稀缺,日本经济主要依靠出口。2011年日本的出口总值超过了8000亿美元。该值占日本总产出的14%,在世界排名第五。

近期,日本经济受到中国经济快速增长的促进。由于日本是与中国相隔最近的主要经济体,中国的需求增加导致了对日本产品的疯狂购买。

日本不仅有好吃的食物,还有东京——世界最大的金融中心之一。

就像你在电影里看到的,日本商人做生意很严谨。每天有大量的资金在东京流入流出,交易商和投资者可以把东京作为判断在远东都发生了些什么的指示器。

货币和财政政策

日本央行建立于19世纪末期,但直到近期它才从财政部中独立出来。直到1998年,日本政府才通过由日本央行制定货币政策的法令。要注意的是外汇政策仍由财政部制定,这使得二者之间分歧不断。

通常,政府和央行相互依靠——互相影响。但在日本并不是这样的。即使日本央行从政府中独立出去了,谁掌权仍然是个问题。

日本财政部通常会紧盯日本央行,向其施压,让其通过相关政策,帮助财政部达成外汇兑换目标。同其他央行类似,日本央行的目标是保持价格稳定。日本央行中的银行家利用公开市场操作和利率变动来达成他们的目标。

关于日本央行,有一点你要知道,长时间以来,日本央行都将利率维持在较低水平,目前利率在0.00%到0.10%之间。因为利率已经很低,因此央行不能通过降低利率来刺激增长或增加流动性。

在对抗通货紧缩方面,日本央行会采取非正统的量化宽松政策向市场中注入大量资金。

量化宽松措施是指央行通过购买政府证券,增加流动性和货币供给的举措。

这有时被称为“印钱”。因为央行实际上是凭空创造了新的钱来回购政府证券。理论上来说,货币供给增加,支出增加。

多年来,日本通过各种各样的债券和票据购买计划来增加市场的流动性。

了解日元

和其它拥有众多昵称的货币相比,日元算是一个另类。它进入外汇交易市场时被称作日元,至今还是如此。它的变动也与交叉货币,特别是欧元、英镑和澳元相关。

交易商们喜欢我就像日本人喜欢寿司。

除了美元和欧元,日元是交易最为广泛的货币,美元/日元是交易第二多的货币对。因为日元在国际交易中扮演了十分重要的角色,完成国际交易需要有日元。

准备好体验亚洲感觉了吗?

当投资者想到亚洲,他们潜意识里想到的会是日本。有世界主要金融中心之一的东京,日本通常代表了亚洲的变化。

日本是其他亚洲国家的重要贸易伙伴。如果亚洲商业前景良好,这将会在东京225平均指数中反映出来。

我总是忙忙碌碌……

日本的相关经济报告在亚洲时段公布,因此日元交易在亚洲时段比较活跃。

日元也会在其他时段呈现活跃态势,但这要看公布的经济数据是什么。这点值得注意——这是日本文化的一部分,他们24小时都工作。

……我急于体验廉价的刺激!

许多投资者希望大赚一笔,而有些会寻求套利交易。日元在所有主要货币中利率最低,因此它常被作为套利交易的资金来源。

日本人想法都差不多。

日本资产经理通常会做相同的投资决策。这也导致他们所持的头寸高度相关,也意味着日元汇出现趋势性走势。

我容易爆发……

日元货币对的特点之一就是它们会在较长一段时间维持横盘整理,然后出现方向性突破,继而再次横盘整理,并再次寻求方向性突破!瞪大眼睛,张开耳朵,因为你不知道突破会在什么时候出现!

……我与中国是爱恨交加的关系

中国作为世界大国逐渐崛起,他对日元的影响将继续增加。如果中国经济有继续增长的迹象,日元的需求将受到影响。

为何如此?

就像我们之前说过的,中国是日本重要的贸易伙伴之一。通常情况下,如果中国商业繁荣,它将从日本订购更多商品。这将增加对日元的需求,导致日元升值。

重要的日元经济指标

国内生产总值:这项指标衡量日本的经济活动。它显示经济是向富士山的岩浆那样火热,还是趋于衰亡。

短观调查:这份报告调查各个行业中的经理人,询问他们对经济的看法。情绪上升(分数高于0.0)表明日本商人认为商业活动会增加。反之,减少。

贸易差额:日本经济主要依靠出口。出口数据下降将导致经济活动减少。

失业率:这项指标衡量日本的失业率。高失业率将导致消费者花费下降——他们怎么可能买得起电子游戏和动漫?

消费者物价指数(CPI):过去,日本央行表示他们不害怕采取措施,击退通货紧缩。如果物价持续下降,日本央行可能会采取一些惊人的举措。

核心机械订单:日本的出口中包含大量工业订单。核心机械订单的增加和减少将反映日本贸易的现状。

哪些因素影响日元的走向?

投资变动

由于利率低,日元被看作是重要的投资资金来源。这意味着如果交易商和投资者感到害怕,他们会减持高收益资产。一旦交易者开始解除高收益资产头寸(套息交易),他们将通过回购日元的方式来平掉日元空头。

日本央行效应

这里我要说的是货币干预!日本央行和财政部十分关注外汇市场。由于日本经济依靠出口,日元价格的变动在交易中作用重大。

日本央行不希望日元增值太多,因为那会使日本出口的商品价格相对提高。通过将日元价格保持在较低水平,可以刺激对日产商品的需求,进而有利于经济增长。

美元/日元交易

美元/日元交易数量是以美元衡量的。一标准手是10万美元,一迷你手是1万美元。

每点价值以日元度量,根据美元/日元的现价计算(对于日元货币对,数值保留小数点后两位)。

收益和损失以日元标价。对于一标准手,每一点的变动价值为1000日元。对于一迷你手来说,每一手的变动为100日元。例如,如果美元/日元当前汇率是95.00,你想交易一标准手,则每点相当于10.52美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。比如说,如果杠杆比例为100:1,10万美元/日元交易需要1000美元。

美元/日元交易技巧

美元/日元通常会跟随中短期趋势变化,通常是几天。如果你正在进行波段交易,即持有头寸超过1天,你可以尝试在汇价回撤过后入场。

一旦汇价开始横盘整理,你可以选择平仓,等待下一轮的波动行情。注意当价格突破时,你很可能会看到一个持续变动的趋势,因为不断有交易商加入进来。

另一点要记住的是日本工业企业通常将他们的仓位保持在整数水平,如100.00或90.50。当价格接近这些数值时,你要关注其中的变化,因为这些数值可能会成为支撑或阻力水平。

最后,你应关注其他日元货币对,如欧元/日元和英镑/日元。如果你发现这些交叉货币突破了一个技术水平,它将导致购买或卖出日元的狂潮,这将对交易产生很大的影响。

Country Profiles 国家概况 14

Canada

Oh Canada… Uncle Sam’s friendly, environment-loving, French-influenced, semi-frozen buddy up north. It is a place known to have created some of the most amazing things in the world, such as basketball, baseball, maple syrup, and Smarties.

Canada, whose geographical area takes up most of North America, extends from the Atlantic Ocean all the way to the east to the Pacific Ocean. It is composed of ten provinces and three territories, and is considered as one of the world’s most developed countries.

In terms of land mass, Canada is numero dos in the world right after Russia! Given its sheer size and contributions to the world, you can just imagine how Canada and its domestic currency, the Canadian dollar, are important to forex trading.

Canada

Canada: Facts, Figures, and Features

Canada Flag

  • Neighbors: United States of America
  • Size: 3,854,085 square miles
  • Population: 35,427,524
  • Density: 8.3 people per square mile
  • Capital City: Ottawa
  • Head of State: Queen Elizabeth II, represented by Governor-General David Lloyd Johnston
  • Prime Minister: Stephen Harper
  • Currency: Canadian dollar (CAD)
  • Main Imports: machinery and equipment, motor vehicles and parts, electronics, crude oil, chemicals, electricity, durable consumer goods
  • Main Exports: Justin Bieber, motor vehicles and parts, industrial machinery, aircraft, telecommunications equipment, electronics, chemicals, plastics, fertilizers, wood pulp, timber, crude petroleum, natural gas, electricity, aluminium, Steve Nash, Sidney Crosby
  • Imports Partners: U.S. 50.6%, China 11%, Mexico 5.5%
  • Exports Partners: U.S. 74.5%, China 4.3%, UK 4.1%
  • Time Zones: GMT -8, GMT -7, GMT -6, GMT -5, GMT -4
  • Website: https://www.canada.gc.ca/home.html

Economic Overview

Canada is considered as a resource-based country, which basically means that most of the economic growth it experienced early on came from the utilization and export of its own natural resources.

According to the IMF, Canada’s economy is the tenth largest in the world, making it part of the world’s G8. It ranks as the seventh biggest producer of gold and the seventh largest producer of black crack (oil).

Despite its robust industrial and manufacturing industry, much of Canada’s GDP actually comes from its service sector. Its advanced services sector employs three out of every four working Canadians and account for about 70% of the country’s GDP. Next time you meet a Canadian, go ahead and make a bet with him that he works in the services industry. More often than not, you’ll win!

Canada’s economy really got going in January of 1989, when the Free Trade Agreement came into effect. The agreement basically removed all the tariffs (that is the tax imposed on trade) between the US and Canada. In effect, Canada now exports over 70% of its goods to the US.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The Bank of Canada (BOC) is the main governing body when it comes to determining the country’s monetary policy. Decisions on the monetary policy are made by Governing Council, which is made up of the bank’s governor, the senior deputy and four other deputy governors.

Unlike most other central banks, the BOC doesn’t have a set time to make changes on its policies. The council meets every single working day and can alter monetary policy to their liking at any time.

The bank’s basic mandate is similar to other central banks in that they aim to make sure that the Canadian dollar’s value is stable and that the country’s inflation rate is within their 1-3% target. The BOC does this through open market operations and constant adjustment of the bank rate.

The BOC implements its open market operations by using a method called the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). The LVTS enables commercial banks all over Canada to borrow and lend money to each other so that they could go about their daily operations. Now, the interest rate charged on these transactions is called the bank rate. By altering the bank rate, the BOC can basically control the flow of money in the economy.

To illustrate this, let’s say the bank rate is set at 2.00%. In one of its meetings, the BOC realizes that the CAD is losing value much faster than expected, which is causing businesses to increase the prices of goods they sell and the services they offer. The BOC then decides to raise the bank rate to 2.50%.

By hiking the bank rate, the interest needed to be paid to lenders increases, in turn, reduces the likelihood of banks, businesses and consumers of taking additional debt. Now, since there is less money in the pockets of consumers, the chance of them spending is decreased, preventing any further inflation. What business in their right mind would increase prices when nobody is buying, right?

Getting to Know the CAD

You might be wondering why the CAD is nicknamed after Canada’s national bird, the Loonie… Well, that’s because that’s the engraved design on Canada’s coins! Check out these other cool properties of the Loonie:

The Black Crack and Me

Historically, the price of black crack has been highly correlated with the USD/CAD. The general rule is that whenever oil prices start climbing, the CAD usually follows. If the price of oil is projected to increase over the next couple of years, then you’d want to go sell the USD/CAD!

My work hours are short…

The USD/CAD has been known to move in tight ranges for the most part of the day. It is only when U.S. traders are eating their Cheerios during the overlap of the European trading session and the US trading session that the pair begins to move.

…unlike my B.F.F., the USD…

A key factor to look at when trading the USD/CAD is that its direction is closely tied to the U.S. economy. Remember, more than being close neighbors, the U.S. and Canada engage in heavy trade with each other. When the U.S. economy experiences robust growth, the Canadian economy is usually just right behind it! So whenever you decide to trade the CAD, take some time off to see how well (or poorly) the U.S. is doing.

…but I’m still feisty during the US session.

The CAD usually doesn’t start moving until the U.S. trading session, around 1:00 pm GMT. The CAD offers little movement during the Asian trading session and the morning European trading session.

Important Economic Indicators for the CAD

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Similar to other central banks, the Bank of Canada’s objective is to make sure that inflation does not get out of hand. Since the consumer price index tracks the increase (or decrease) in the prices of consumer goods and services, the report is closely watched by currency traders.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – The GDP is the broadest measure of Canada’s economic activity. It reveals whether the country is growing or not.

Trade Balance – Just like other commodity-based countries, Canada’s economy is highly susceptible to changes in its export and import activities.

Ivey Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI) – The PMI is a survey designed to see whether businesses are optimistic or pessimistic about the economy. A reading above base line 50.0 means that conditions in the business sector is growing while a reading below 50.0 indicates otherwise.

What Moves the CAD?

U.S. Economic Data

U.S. economic data usually prints roughly at the same time as Canadian data. On the one hand, the negative data from the US coupled with positive data from Canada could lead to a massive drop in the USD/CAD’s value. On the other hand, positive U.S. data and poor Canadian data could send the USD/CAD soaring high!

Mergers and Acquisitions

Because of the proximity between the U.S. and Canada, company mergers and acquisitions happen quite often. These cause a huge amount of money to flow between the two countries, which create a significant effect on the foreign exchange market.

For example, in order for a U.S. company to buy out a Canadian company, it must first exchange it’s U.S. dollars to Canadian dollars to complete the transaction. Imagine the amount of money that flows through the foreign exchange market just to seal the deal!

Trading the USD/CAD

USD/CAD is traded in amounts denominated in USD. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 USD and mini lot sizes are 10,000 USD.

The pip value, which is denominated in Canadian dollars, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of USD/CAD (that’s 0.0001) by USD/CAD’s current rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in Canadian dollars. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 CAD. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 CAD. For example, if the current exchange rate of USD/CAD is 1.1000 and you want to trade one standard lot, then one pip would equate to 9.90 USD.

Margin calculations are based in US dollars. With a leverage of 100:1, 1,000 USD is needed to trade 100,000 USD/CAD.

USD/CAD Trading Tactics

Since USD/CAD is only active during the U.S. trading session, the pair is highly susceptible to fake outs during the other two trading sessions. This means that a break in a significant support level in the USD/CAD during the morning European trading session would, more often than not, simply be a fake out.

Watching the differences in the results of economic data between the U.S. and Canada is also a great practice to determine where the USD/CAD is headed. Because both and US and Canadian data are released just a few hours or minutes apart, variances in results tend to result in exaggerated one directional moves.

For instance, negative US data coupled with positive Canadian data would be a good reason to sell USD/CAD.

Lastly, beyond looking at economic data, spending some time to analyze oil price behavior would help a lot in trading the CAD.

Since Canada is considered as one of the world’s major black crack producers, changes in its price create quite a hefty impact in the CAD’s value. In fact, since 1988, the exchange rate of USD/CAD and the price of oil have been inversely correlated by as much as 68%.

How can you use this to your advantage? Well, if you notice that over time that oil prices at your local gasoline station are rising, it could give you the additional confirmation you need to short the USD/CAD.

Canadians

加拿大

加拿大……山姆大叔的好朋友、环境优美、深受法国影响、一半地区为冰冻区。这里创造了一些世界上最让人惊喜的事物,如篮球、棒球、枫糖浆和聪明豆。

加拿大占据了北美洲大部,从大西洋一直延伸到太平洋。它有10个行省和3个领地组成,是世界上最发达的国家之一。

从陆地面积来讲,加拿大位列世界第二,仅次于俄罗斯!考虑到它的大小和它对世界的贡献,你可以想像一下加拿大和它的货币加元在外汇世界的作用有多重要。

Country Profiles 国家概况 15

加拿大:事实、数据及特点

Country Profiles 国家概况 16

邻国:美国

面积:3,855,101平方英里

人口:33,476,688

人口密度:8.3人每平方英里

首都:渥太华

国家元首:伊利莎白女王二世,由总督约翰斯顿(David Lloyd Johnson)代表

总理:哈珀(Stephen Harper)

货币:加拿大元(CAD)

主要进口:机械设备、机动车及配件、电子设备、原油、化学品、电力、耐用消费品

主要出口:机动车及配件、工业机械、飞机、通信设备、电子设备、化学品、塑料、化肥、木浆、木材、原油、天然气、电力、铝、纳什(Steve Nash)、克罗斯比(Sidney Crosby)

进口伙伴:美国50.4%、中国11%、墨西哥5.5%

出口伙伴:美国72.3%、日本2.5%

时区:西八区、西七区、西六区、西五区、西四区、

网站:https://www.canada.gc.ca/home.html

经济概况

加拿大是资源型国家,也就是说其经济增长的主要是通过利用和出口其自然资源。

根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)有关数据显示,加拿大的经济总量在世界排名第十,这使它成为G8成员国之一。它也是世界第七大产金国和产油国。

尽管工业和制造业强健,加拿大GDP主要来源其服务部门。加拿大四分之三的劳动力就职于其先进的服务部门,每年创造该国GDP70%的产值。下次你看到加拿大人,上前跟他打个赌,赌他是在服务业工作的。大多数情况下你会赢。

加拿大经济真正开始良好运转始于1989年1月,自由贸易区协议生效的时候。这项协议移除了美国和加拿大间所有关税。实际上,加拿大向美国出口了其超过70%的商品。

货币和财政政策

加拿大央行是该国货币政策的主管部门。货币政策的决议由管理委员会制定。管理委员会由银行行长、高级副行长和另外4位副行长构成。与其他央行不同,加拿大央行没有固定的调整政策的时间。管理委员会每天都会开会,随时可以决定改变货币政策。

加拿大央行的指令同其他央行类似,因为他们的目的是确保加元的价格稳定,该国通胀率在1%到3%之内。加拿大央行通过公开市场操作和不断调整银行利率来达成其目标。

加拿大央行实施公开市场操作政策是通过采用大额转账系统(LVTS)实现的。LVTS使加拿大各地的商业银行之间可以通过互相借贷完成日常运营。这些交易的利率被称为银行贴现率。通过改变银行贴现率,加拿大央行可以控制经济中的货币量。

为了让这个更加形象,我们假设银行贴现率是2.00%。在一次例会上,加拿大央行认为加元的贬值速度高于预期,这将导致商品和服务的价格上涨。因此加拿大央行决定将银行贴现率上调至2.50%。

银行贴现率提高,要向贷方偿付的利息就会增加,相反,银行贴现率降低,企业和消费者就会增加贷款额。现在,消费者们口袋里的钱少了,他们消费的几率也就降低了,进一步通胀也会被阻止。头脑清晰的公司都不会在没有人愿意消费时涨价,不是吗?

了解加元

你也许会想为什么加元的别名是加拿大国鸟的名字,卢尼……那是由于在加元硬币上刻着卢尼。让我们来了解一下卢尼的属性:

黑可卡因与我

历史上,黑可卡因的价格与美元/加元的走势相关度很高。通常油价上升,加元随之上涨。如果油价预计在接下来的几年都会增加,那你肯定想赶快去把美元/加元都卖了。

我的工作时间短……

美元/加元走势在一天中的绝大部分时间都保持窄幅调整。只有在美国人早餐时间同欧洲交易时段相重叠时和美国交易时段,该货币对的活动比较活跃。

……与我最好的外国朋友美元不同……

进行美元/加元交易是要注意的关键因素是它的变动方向与美国经济状况的变化密切相关。记住,除了是邻国,美国和加拿大之间的交易量巨大。美国经济繁荣,加拿大经济也会随之繁荣。因此当你打算交易加元时,花点时间看看美国经济状况如何。

……但我在美国交易时段还是很活跃的。

加元在美国交易时段开始前都不会出现明显变动。加元在亚洲交易时段和欧洲交易时段的变动都很小。

与加元变动相关的重要经济指标

消费者物价指数(CPI):同其他央行一样,加拿大央行的目标是控制通货膨胀。由于消费者物价指数追踪商品和服务的价格变动,因此该数据受到货币交易商的紧密关注。

国内生产总值(GDP):GDP是对加拿大整体经济状况的衡量。它反映了经济是否在增长。

贸易差额:同其他以商品交易为基础的国家一样,加拿大的经济易受进出口活动的影响。

Ivey采购经理指数(PMI):PMI是调查的是公司对经济的预期是乐观还是悲观。读数高于50.0的基线代表商业状况在提升,反之亦然。

哪些因素影响加元的变动?

美国经济数据

美国经济数据与加拿大经济数据的公布时间相近。美国报告中消极的数据和加拿大报告中积极的数据将导致美元/加元价格大幅下跌。相反美国报告中积极的数据和加拿大报告中消极的数据将导致美元/加元价格猛涨。

兼并与并购

由于美国和加拿大毗邻,公司之间的兼并和并购十分频繁。这导致大量的资金在两国之间流动,对外汇交易市场带来极大影响。

例如,美国公司为了收购加拿大公司,他必须先将美元转换为加元来完成这项交易。想想搞定这项交易要从外汇市场上流动的资金的数目吧。

美元/加元交易

美元/加元交易数量是以美元衡量的。一标准手是10万美元,迷你手是1万美元。

每点价值以加元度量,以美元/加元现价一点(0.0001)来计算。

收益和损失以加元标价。对于一标准手,每一点的变动价值为10 加元。对于一迷你手来说,每一手的变动为1加元。比如说,美元/加元当前汇率是1.1000,那么,一标准手一点的价值就为6.72美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。在100:1的杠杆下,交易100,000美元的美元/加元,需要1,000美元。

美元/加元交易技巧

因为美元/加元变动只有在美国交易时段最活跃,在另两个交易时段可能会出现假变动。这意味着在欧洲交易时段,若美元/加元走势突破了一个支撑水平,大多数情况下,这仅是个假突破。

查看美国经济数据和加拿大经济数据之间的不同,也是判定美元/加元变动方向的重要步骤。因为美国和加拿大数据的公布时间只相差几个小时或几分钟,它们之间的差异将加大向某个方向的变动程度。

例如,消极的美国数据和积极的加拿大数据将成为卖出美元/加元的一个不错的理由。

最后,除了关注经济数据,花一点时间研究油价变动也将有助于加元交易。

因为加拿大是世界主要产油国之一,油价变动对加元价值的影响很大。事实上,自1988年以来,美元/加元的汇价变化同油价变动之间的逆向相关度达到了68%。

你要怎么利用这点呢?如果你注意到你所在的地方的汽油价格上涨了,你将更确定你可以卖空美元/加元。

Country Profiles 国家概况 17

Australia

Officially known as the Commonwealth of Australia, Australia could be found somewhere in the Southern Hemisphere, just southeast of Asia.

Considered as the world’s biggest island, Australia is the only country on earth that governs an entire continent!

Before the coming of settlers from Europe in 1788, Aboriginal people inhabited most of the country.

Since then, people from all over the world have migrated to Australia, which has made it one of the most culturally diverse countries in the world. Now, Australia is home to people from 200 different countries.

Lastly, and probably most importantly, Australia is known for producing the meanest and most hardcore actors of all time like Mel Gibson, the Braveheart; Hugh Jackman, the Wolverine; and the legendary Heath Ledger, the Joker!

To add to that, they also have mech-kangaroos, battle tank armadillos, and bomber pelicans. You can see how the rest of the world really had no choice but to name an entire continent after them.

Australia

Australia: Facts, Figures, and Features

Australia Flag

  • Neighbors: New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia
  • Size: 2,969,907 square miles
  • Density: 7.3 people per square mile
  • Capital City: Canberra (population 358,222)
  • Head of State: Queen Elizabeth II
  • Head of Government: Prime Minister Tony Abbott
  • Currency: Australia dollar (AUD)
  • Main Imports: Machinery and transportation, electrical and telecommunications equipment; crude oil and petroleum products
  • Main Exports: Ores and metals; wool, food and live animals; fuels, transport machinery and equipment, Hugh Jackman, Nicole Kidman, Heath Ledger
  • Import Partners: China 18.4%, U.S. 11.7%, Japan 7.9%, Singapore 6%, Germany 4.6%, Thailand 4.2%, South Korea 4.1%
  • Export Partners: China 29.5%, Japan 19.3%, South Korea 8%, India 4.9%
  • Time Zone: GMT +10
  • Website: https://www.australia.gov.au

Economic Overview

Compared to G7 nations, Australia’s overall economy is relatively small. According to the World Bank, however, on a per person basis, its GDP is even higher than the U.K., Germany and even the U.S.!

In the past fifteen years or so, Australia’s economy has grown an average of 3.6% annually, well above the 2.5% world norm. No wonder it ranked third overall in the Legatum Institute’s 2011 Prosperity Index!

Australia’s economy is highly service oriented, with over 70% of its GDP coming from industries such as finance, education, and tourism.

Despite having a very robust export industry and stellar growth, Australia has been notoriously famous for consistently having a high current account deficit. This means that Australia is using up more resources from other economies to satisfy its own domestic consumption.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the main governing body of Australia when it comes to monetary and fiscal policy. The RBA’s aim is three-fold:

  1. Keep exchange rates stable
  2. Ensure growth
  3. Maintain full employment

In order to do this, the bank believes that the country’s annual inflation rate must be kept within 2-3%. By keeping a tight rein on inflation, the value of their domestic currency is secured, which will eventually lead to sustainable economic growth.

How does the RBA make sure inflation is controlled? Two ways: adjusting the cash rate and conducting open market operations.

The cash rate is the interest rate charged by lending banks on overnight loans to other financial institutions.

Open market operations, on the other hand, is the way the RBA controls money supply through the buying and selling of government loans or other financial assets. With the exception of January, the RBA meets monthly to discuss what changes it will make to monetary policy.

To make this easier to swallow, take this simple example. Let’s say that inflation in Australia is increasing much faster than what the bank wants. In order to suppress the high inflation rate, the bank decides to raise the cash rate, which will effectively increase the cost of borrowing by…. uh, borrowers.

Naturally, this move will tone down lending, lessening the overall money in circulation. And basic supply and demand tells us that the scarcer something is, the more valuable it is!

Getting to Know the AUD

Even though they’ve got their seasons mixed up, the Australians are always up bright and early to play. Well, this is mostly because the Australian market is the first to open every week! Just like the people inhabiting the place, Australia’s local currency, the AUD, is called the Aussie.

I’m called a commodity dollar for a reason…

One important characteristic of the AUD is that it has a high positive correlation with gold prices. The reason behind this is that Australia is the third biggest gold-digger… errr, gold producer in the world. As a result, whenever the price of gold rises or falls, the AUD goes along for the ride.

… and I’m one of the best candidates for carry trade.

Among the major currencies, the AUD has been known for having the a high interest rate. This makes it a favorite for carry trade. Carry trade is the practice of buying a currency with a high interest rate in exchange for a currency with a lower interest rate.

I’m only awake a couple of hours a day…

Most of the AUD’s movement happens during the Asian trading session, the time when economic data from Australia is released.

… but bad weather is one of my worst enemies!

Given the commodity based economy of Australia, unfavorable weather conditions tend to put a serious strain on Australia’s growth, which leads to a sell-off in the AUD.

How severely do weather conditions affect the AUD?

Well, let’s just say that during the Australian drought of 2002, AUD/USD fell to .4770 – that is almost half its current exchange rate!

Important Economic Indicators for Australia

Consumer Price Index – Because the RBA’s primary goal is controlling inflation, the CPI, which measures the overall change in price of consumer goods and services, is closely watched by the bank.

Balance of Trade – Australia has an extremely robust trade sector so currency traders and bank officials alike tend to watch changes in the country’s export and import levels.

Gross Domestic Product – This measures how well Australia’s economy is doing. Positive readings indicate economic growth while negative readings mean economic contraction.

Unemployment Rate – The unemployment rate tracks how many people in Australia’s labor force are out of work. The number of people employed, or rather, unemployed in this cause, has a high correlation with economic activity. A person without a job means he has less money available for spending.

What Moves the AUD

Economic and Interest Rate Outlook

The AUD is greatly affected by macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy rhetoric, interest rates and domestic economic data.

In trading the AUD, always pay special attention to the interest rate outlook. Comments made by officials from the RBA regarding interest rates, for instance, could create a hefty impact on the AUD.

China’s Economy

For the better part of the last decade, China has been on a roll, posting some massive growth figures. In order to create finished goods, China sources a lot of its raw materials like coal and iron ore, from Australia.

For China to buy raw materials from Australia, it must first need to exchange its local currency for the AUD. This means that increased demand for Chinese goods tend to prop up the AUD’s value.

Likewise, a decline in demand for Chinese products could lead to a fall in the AUD’s value.

New Zealand Data

To a lesser extent, data from New Zealand influences the AUD’s price action. Take note that New Zealand’s economy is very similar to Australia, which makes their currency positively correlated.

In fact, the relationship of the two countries is sometimes described as “Trans-Tasman” to show how closely tied their economies are and to indicate the existence of the Tasman Sea sitting right between them.

With that said, it is important to be aware of important upcoming data from New Zealand as it could indirectly cause the AUD to move.

Trading AUD/USD

AUD/USD is traded in amounts denominated in AUD. Standard lot sizes are 100,000 AUD and mini lot sizes are 10,000 AUD.

The pip value, which is denominated in U.S. dollars, is calculated by dividing 1 pip of AUD/USD (that’s 0.0001) by the AUD/USD’s current rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in U.S. dollars. For one standard lot position size, each pip movement is worth 10 USD. For one mini lot position size, each pip movement is worth 1 USD.

Margin calculations are based in U.S. dollars. For example, if the current AUD/USD rate is 0.9000 and the leverage is 100:1, 900 USD is needed in available margin to be able to trade on standard lot of 100,000 AUD. However, as AUD/USD rises, a larger available margin in USD is required. Conversely, the lower AUD/USD rate is, the less required available margin is needed.

AUD/USD Trading Tactics

Since the AUD is one of the best candidates for carry trade, which is the buying of a currency with high interest rates and the selling of a currency with low interest rates, AUD/USD is highly affected by crosses.

How can you use this to your advantage?

Well, if you see a break of a significant technical support level in AUD/JPY, that could be a good sign to sell AUD/USD!

Another thing to consider when trading AUDUSD is data coming out from New Zealand. Because of Australia’s nearness and trade relations with New Zealand, positive economic data from New Zealand usually helps push the AUD’s value up.

This means that better-than-expected New Zealand economic reports could be seen as a good signal to buy the AUD. Conversely, poor economic data from New Zealand could be a reason to sell the AUD.

Lastly, take some time to look at how commodity-prices, especially gold are doing. More often than not, the price of gold leads the AUD.

This means that whenever the gold rises in value, AUD/USD could rally soon after! Of course, when the value of gold falls, the AUD also tends follows suit.

Australian

澳大利亚

澳大利亚,官方名称澳大利亚联邦,位于南半球,亚洲东南方。

澳大利亚是世界上最大的岛,也是世界上唯一一个占据了整块大陆的国家。

在1788年欧洲人来澳大利亚定居前,土著居民占据了该国的大部分区域。

自1788年后,世界各地的人移民到澳大利亚,使其成为了世界上文化最多样的国家之一。现在,澳大利亚人来自于200个不同的国家和地区。

最后,也是最重要的一点,澳大利亚因出十分出色、骨灰级演员而闻名于世,这些演员包括《勇敢的心中》的吉布森(Mel Gibson),《金刚狼》中杰克曼(Hugh Jackman),《小丑》中的莱杰(Health Ledger)。

Country Profiles 国家概况 18

澳大利亚:事实、数据和特点

Country Profiles 国家概况 19

邻国:新西兰、巴布亚新几内亚、印度尼西亚

面积:2,969,907平方英里

人口密度:7.3人每平方英里

首都:堪培拉(人口358,222)

国家元首:伊利莎白女王二世

政府首脑:总理吉拉德(Julia Gillard)

货币:澳大利亚元(AUD)

主要进口:机械和运输工具、电流和通信设备、原油和石油制品

主要出口:矿石和金属、食物和牲畜、燃料、交通机械设备、杰克曼(Hugh Jackman)、基德曼(Nicole Kidman)、莱杰(Health Ledger)

进口伙伴:中国19.2%、美国12.1%、日本7.8%、新加坡5.3%、德国5.1%

出口伙伴:中国26.4%、日本19.1%、韩国9.2%、印度6.4%、台湾3.7%

时区:东十区

网站:https://www.australia.gov.au

经济概况

与G7国家相比,澳大利亚的经济相对较小。然而,根据世界银行公布的数据,以个人为基准,澳大利亚的甚至比英国、德国,甚至美国还要高!

在过去的15年间,澳大利亚经济年平均增长水平为3.6%,比世界基准2.5%要高。 难怪它在列格坦研究所2011繁荣指数中名列第三!

澳大利亚的经济是以服务型为导向的, 其超过70%来源于金融、教育、旅游等部门。

尽管出口产业强健,增长较快,澳大利亚却因持续出现经常帐赤字而臭名远扬。这意味着澳大利亚用尽了其他经济体的大量资源来满足本国的消费需求。

货币和财政政策

澳洲联储是澳大利亚货币政策的主管部门。澳洲联储的目的有三重:

1. 保持汇率稳定

2. 确保增长

3. 维持完全就业

为了达到这些目标,澳洲联储认为该国的通货膨胀率必须保持在2%到3%之间。通过严格控制通胀的程度,该国货币的价格就能维持稳定,进而确保经济的稳固增长。

澳洲联储如何控制通胀呢?两种方法:调整现钞汇率和公开市场操作。

现钞汇率是银行向其他金融机构提供隔夜借款所收的利率。

公开市场操作则是澳洲联储通过买卖政府贷款和其他金融资产来控制资金供给。除了1月,澳洲联储每月举行例会讨论货币政策的变动。

为了让这个更容易理解,我们来举个例子。如果澳大利亚的通货膨胀率比联储想要的上升的快,为了打压高通胀率,澳洲联储决定提高现钞汇率,从而达到增加借款成本的目的。

通常,这个做法会减少借贷,使流通中的资金数量减少。基本供求告诉我们东西越少,则价格越高。

了解澳元

尽管澳大利亚人会弄混季节,但他们都起得很早,并开始进入交易。这是因为澳大利亚市场是每周最先开市的一个。同住在那的人一样,澳大利亚本国的货币澳元也叫做澳洲人( Aussie)。

我被叫做商品美元是有原因的……

澳元的一个重要特点就是它与金价的相关度很高。其中的原因是澳大利亚是最大的产金国。因此,只要金价出现起伏,澳元也会随之变动。

……我是做套利交易的重要候选人之一。

在主要货币中,澳元因有高利率而闻名。这使它成为套利交易的最爱之一。套利交易是用低利率货币买入高利率货币的做法。

在一天中我只有几个小时是醒着的……

澳元变动主要出现在亚洲交易时段,澳大利亚相关数据公布时。

……天气不好是我最大的敌人!

澳大利亚以商品经济为主,糟糕的天气状况会限制澳大利亚经济的增长,导致投资者卖空澳元。

天气状况对澳元的影响有多大呢?

在2002年澳大利亚旱灾期间,澳元/美元下跌至0.4770——那几乎是它现有汇率的一半。

澳大利亚重要的经济数据

消费者物价指数:因为澳洲联储最主要的目标是控制通胀,因此衡量商品和服务价格变动的消费者物价指数受到了澳洲联储的紧密监控。

贸易差额:澳大利亚交易部门十分活跃,因此货币交易商和银行官员都十分关注该国进出口水平的变化。

国内生产总值:这项指标衡量澳大利亚的经济状况。正读数代表经济增长,负读数代表经济紧缩。

失业率:失业率追踪澳大利亚劳动力中有多少人没有工作。失业人数与经济活动的表现息息相关。一个人没有工作意味着他用来消费的钱少了。

哪些因素影响澳元的走势

经济和利率前景

澳元受宏观经济因素,如货币政策、利率和国内经济数据的影响很大。

进行澳元交易,要特别注意利率变动前景。澳洲联储官员与利率相关的言论将对澳元造成很到影响。

中国的经济状况

在过去近10年间,中国运气极佳,出现了大幅的增长数据。为了生产产品,中国从澳大利亚进口了大量的原材料,如煤,铁矿石等。

中国要从澳大利亚购入原材料,它必须先将其货币兑换为澳元。这意味着中国商品的需求增加降抬高澳元的价格。

同样地,中国商品的需求减少将导致澳元走跌。

新西兰数据

在较小程度上,新西兰经济数据也会影响澳元的价格行为。注意,新西兰的经济与澳大利亚的经济很相像,这使他们的货币正向相关。

事实上,两国之间的关系有时被称作“泛塔斯曼”,通过暗指两国之间的塔斯曼海来显示两国之间联系的紧密程度。

因此要关注新西兰重要的经济数据,因为它会影响澳元的走势。

澳元/美元交易

澳元/美元的交易数量是以澳元衡量的。一标准手是10万澳元,迷你手是1万澳元。

每点价值以美元标价,以澳元/美元表示的汇率中,小数点后四位为一点。

收益和损失以美元标价。1标准手情况下,每变动一点的价值是10美元;对于迷你手来说,每变动一点的价值是1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。比如说,如果澳元/美元当前汇率是0.9000,杠杆比例为100:1,交易一标准手所需的最低保证金应该为900美元。不过,随着澳元/美元汇率的上涨,对美元保证金的需求量将随之增加。反之,所需美元保证金量将降低。

澳元/美元交易技巧

因为澳元是套利交易,即买入高利率货币,卖出低利率货币的绝佳候选人之一,澳元/美元手交叉货币的影响很大。

你要如何利用这点呢?

如果你发现澳元/日元突破了一个重要的技术支撑水平,就意味着你应卖空澳元/美元了。

进行澳元/美元交易要考虑的另一点就是新西兰的经济数据。因为澳大利亚和新西兰相邻,且有相关贸易关系,因此积极的新西兰经济数据将有助于推动澳元价格的上涨。

这意味着超预期的新西兰经济报告可以被看作是买入澳元的信号。相反,新西兰经济数据表现不佳则意味着应该要卖出澳元。

最后,花点时间看看商品价格,特别是金价的变动。多数情况下,金价的变动将引导澳元价格的变动。

这意味着一旦金价上升,澳元/美元不久后也会上涨!当然,若金价下跌,澳元也会走跌。

Country Profiles 国家概况 20

New Zealand

If you’ve seen the Lord of the Rings, then you probably know that Middle Earth is located somewhere along the hills of New Zealand.

More than being home to Frodo Baggins and his hobbit friends, New Zealand is also one of Australia’s next-door neighbors in Oceania, the Southern region of the Pacific Ocean.

The country is made up of two main islands, the North Island and the South Island, and several smaller islands.

Famous for hosting a larger population of sheep than people, New Zealand is home to about four million residents. To put that into perspective, New York alone had a population of 8.4 million people in 2011.

New Zealand is also known as Aotearoa, which means “Land of the Long White Cloud” in Maori, one of the major languages in the country.

New Zealand

New Zealand: Facts, Figures, and Features

New Zealand Flag

  • Neighbors: Australia, Fiji, Tonga
  • Size: 104,483 square miles
  • Population: 4,537,081 (123rd)
  • Density: 42.7 people per square mile
  • Capital City: Wellington (city population 179,466)
  • Head of State: Queen Elizabeth II
  • Head of Government: Prime Minister John Key
  • Currency: New Zealand dollar (NZD)
  • Main Imports: machinery and equipment, vehicles and aircraft, petroleum, electronics, textiles, plastics
  • Main Exports: Russell Crowe, Ores and metals; wool, food and live animals; fuels, transport machinery and equipment
  • Import Partners: China 16.4%, Australia 15.2%, US 9,3%, Japan 6.5%, Singapore 4.8%, Germany 4.4%
  • Export Partners: Australia 21.1%, China 15%, US 9%, Japan 7%
  • Time Zone: GMT +12
  • Website: https://www.newzealand.govt.nz

Economic Overview

With its teeny-tiny population, New Zealand’s economy is also relatively small. Its GDP, which is valued at 123 billion USD in 2011, ranks 65th among the world economies. But don’t underestimate New Zealand… This country makes up for its size by being a strong player in trade!

Their economic activity is largely dependent on trade, mostly with the Land Down Under (Australia), the Land of the Rising Sun (Japan), and Uncle Sam (U.S.). It is an export-driven economy, with its main exports such as ores, metals, and wool comprising a third of its GDP. It also exports much of its cattle and dairy products. Angus beef sound familiar to you?

Its primary industries are agriculture and tourism, and they only have small manufacturing and technology sectors. Because of that, its imports from other countries comprise mostly of heavy machinery, equipment, vehicles, and electronic products.

Since the country has removed many barriers to foreign investment, the World Bank has praised New Zealand for being one of the most business-friendly countries in the world, second to Singapore.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is in charge of the monetary and fiscal policy of the nation. Currently headed by Governor Alan Bollard, the RBNZ holds monetary policy meetings eight times a year. The RBNZ is tasked with maintaining price stability, setting interest rates, and monitoring output and exchange rates.

To achieve price stability, the RBNZ must ensure that annual inflation meets the 1.5% central bank target… otherwise the government has the right to kick the RBNZ Governor out of office (We’re not kidding).

The RBNZ has the following tools in its monetary policy arsenal:

The official cash rate (OCR), which affects short-term interest rates, is set by the RBNZ Governor. By lending 25 basis points above this rate and borrowing at 25 basis points below the OCR to commercial banks, the central bank is able to control the interest rates offered to individuals and businesses.

Open market operations are used to meet the cash target or the amount of reserves parked in commercial banks. By forecasting the cash target daily, the RBNZ is able to calculate how much money to inject in the economy in order to meet the target.

Getting to Know the NZD

The New Zealand dollar is nicknamed “Kiwi.”It’s a bird! It’s a plane! No, wait, it’s really a bird. The Kiwi also happens to be the national symbol for New Zealand… but let’s focus on the Kiwi as a currency and its interesting characteristics.

Show me the commodities!

Since New Zealand’s economy is mostly dependent on its exports of commodities and agricultural products, the overall economic performance of the region is linked to commodity prices.

If commodity prices rise, then the amount of money paid for New Zealand’s exports also rises, which then makes a larger contribution to the country’s GDP. Since a higher GDP reflects a strong economic performance, it could lead to an appreciation of the Kiwi.

Conversely, falling commodity prices result to lower monetary value of exports, making a smaller contribution to GDP. A lower GDP could then cause the Kiwi to depreciate.

I move hand-in-hand with the AUD

Since Australia is New Zealand’s number one trade partner, the economic performance of Australia has a huge impact on New Zealand’s.

For instance, when the Australian economy does well, Australian firms pump up their importing activities and guess who benefits from that? New Zealand, of course!

…and, just like the AUD, I enjoy carry trades!

Just like Australia, New Zealand enjoys higher interest rates compared to other major economies, such as the U.S., the U.K., or Japan.

Interest rate differentials between economies often serve as indicators of money flows. Since investors prefer to receive higher returns, they’d sell lower-yielding investments in exchange for higher-yielding assets or currencies. In other words, the higher the interest rate, the more money flows in.

I’d like more migration, please.

Because New Zealand’s population is less than half the number of people living in New York, an increase in migration into the country has a huge effect on the economy. This is because as the population grows, the demand for goods and overall consumption increases.

Oh, I’m weather-sensitive too.

New Zealand’s economy is also largely driven by its agricultural industry, which means that severe weather conditions such as droughts have a huge negative impact on their entire economy. Those heat waves are also prevalent in Australia, which is more frequented by forest fires, costing close to 1% of its GDP in damages. This doesn’t do the NZD any good…

Important Economic Indicators for the NZD

Gross Domestic Product – Just like any other nation, the gross domestic product (GDP) serves as an economic report card for New Zealand. By serving as a gauge of overall economic performance for the New Zealand, it influences the demand for the NZD.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The consumer price index measures the change in price levels. As a measure of inflation, it is closely watched by the RBNZ in determining changes in monetary policy. They’re supposed to maintain price stability, remember?

Balance of Trade – Since New Zealand is an export-driven economy, traders often take a look at their trade balance to gauge the international demand for New Zealand’s products.

What Moves the NZD?

Economic Growth

Positive GDP growth reflects the strong economic standing of New Zealand, boosting demand for its currency. Negative GDP growth highlights the poor economic performance of the country, dampening demand for the NZD.

Surge in Exports

Higher demand for New Zealand’s products often results to a higher GDP, which then boosts the NZD. In contrast, lower exports make a smaller contribution to GDP, causing the NZD’s value to fall.

Rising Commodity Prices

Increasing commodity prices causes the monetary value of New Zealand’s exports to rise, pushing its GDP higher. Falling commodity prices, on the other hand, cause the monetary value of exports to fall, dragging its GDP down.

Trading NZD/USD

Since the counter currency is the US Dollar, the changes in value are measured in Greenbacks. 

On a 100,000 unit NZD/USD position, each pip movement is worth $10 USD while on a 10,000 NZD/USD position size, each pip movement is worth $1 USD.

Margin calculations are based in US dollars. For instance, if the current NZDUSD rate is 0.7000 and leverage is 100:1, 700 USD in available margin is required for a 100,000 NZD position. A 10,000 NZD position requires 70 USD in available margin.

You see, because of the Kiwi’s relatively low value against the U.S. dollar, it requires the least amount of available margin among the other majors. That means it’s cheaper to trade the Kiwi!

NZD/USD Trade Tactics

Strong economic reports from New Zealand result to an appreciation of the NZD so if there’s a good chance that an economic release could beat the consensus, it could be a sign to go long NZD/USD.

Weak economic reports, on the other hand, push the NZD down. If an upcoming report is likely to come in weaker than expected, it could be a chance to short NZD/USD.

Aside from watching economic reports, taking note of commodity price behavior could also serve as an influence on  NZD/USD price action.

In recent history, commodity prices tend to surge when demand for riskier assets is also strong. During these times, investors place their money in higher-yielding assets such as gold and other commodities and sell the lower-yielding U.S. dollar. As a result, the commodity-based Kiwi gains strongly against the safe-haven US.. dollar.

On the other hand, when risk aversion forces investors to flee back to the safe-havens, the NZD edges lower against the USD.

Just like the AUD, the NZD is also a good candidate for carry trade. Since carry trades involve buying of a currency with high interest rates and selling of a currency with low interest rates, New Zealand’s relatively high interest rate provides support for the NZD.

Kiwis

新西兰

如果你看过《指环王》,你也许知道中土世界是在新西兰的山中取景的。

除了是巴金斯(Frobo Baggins)和他的霍比特朋友的故乡,新西兰还是澳大利亚在大洋洲的邻国之一,位于太平洋南部。

该国主要由两个岛屿组成,北岛和南岛,此外还有一些小岛。

以羊比人多而闻名的新西兰有400万居民。为了让你更清楚这代表了什么,我们举个例子,2011年仅纽约的人口就有840万。

新西兰也被称为Aotearoa,毛利语的意思为“长白云之乡”。毛利语是新西兰的主要语言之一。

Country Profiles 国家概况 21

新西兰:事实、数据和特点

Country Profiles 国家概况 22

邻国:澳大利亚、斐济、汤加

面积:104,454平方英里

人口:4,268,600

人口密度:40.9每平方公里

首都:惠灵顿

国家元首:伊利莎白女王二世

政府首脑:总理约翰?基

货币:新西兰元(NZD)

主要进口:机械和设备、车辆和飞机、试验品、石油、电子产品、纺织品、塑料

主要出口:克罗(Russell Crowe)、矿石和金属、羊毛。食物和牲畜、燃料、交通机械及设备

进口伙伴:德国13.5%、美国10.2%、法国8.1%、荷兰6.3%、比利时4.9%、意大利4.7%

出口伙伴:美国15.7%、德国10.5%、法国9.5%、荷兰6.9%、爱尔兰6.5%、比利时5.6%、西班牙4.4%、意大利4.4%

时区:东12区

网站:https://www.newzealand.govt.nz

经济概览

由于人口很少,新西兰的经济量也较小。2011年新西兰的GDP为1230亿美元,在全球所有经济体中排名65。但是不要低估新西兰,它在世界贸易中扮演着十分重要的角色。

新西兰的经济活动主要依靠贸易,特别是和南方大陆(澳大利亚)、旭日之国(日本)、及山姆大叔(美国)之间贸易。其经济是出口导向型经济,主要出口商品,如矿石、金属和羊毛占了新西兰GDP的三分之一。它也出口牛和奶制品。安格斯牛肉听起来耳熟吗?

新西兰的主要产业包括农业和旅游业,而其制造业和技术部门很小。因此,它从其他国家进口的商品包括重型机械、设备、车辆和电子制品。

自从新西兰取消了许多限制外国投资壁垒,世界银行称赞新西兰为世界上仅次于新加坡的商业友好国家。

货币和财政政策

新西兰联储(新西兰央行)掌管该国的货币和财政政策。目前该行行长是伯纳德,新西兰联储每年召开8次货币政策会议。该央行的任务是维持物价稳定,确定利率和监控产出及汇率。为了保持物价稳定,新西兰联储要确保年通胀率达到央行设定的1.5%的标准,否则政府有权开掉新西兰储备银行的行长(我们不是开玩笑的)。

新西兰联储有以下几个货币政策工具:

官方贴现利率由新西兰联储主席确定,将会影响短期利率水平。以高于官方贴现利率25点借出,以低于该利率25点借入,央行可以调控个人和企业的利率。

公开市场操作是为了达到现金目标或在商业银行中保管的储备金数量。通过每天预测现金目标,新西兰联储可以计算要向经济中注入多少资金才能达到其目标。

了解纽元

新西兰元(纽元)的昵称是“几维”。它是一种鸟。几维是新西兰的象征……但是让我们来看看被称为几维的该国货币和它有趣的特征。

让我看看这些商品!

由于新西兰的经济依靠商品和农产品出口,因此该国的经济表现和商品价格密切相关。

如果商品价格上涨,新西兰出口商品的价格相应增加,这将为该国贡献更多的GDP。高GDP表明经济表现良好,这将导致纽元升值。

相反,商品价格下降意味着出口总价下降,对GDP的贡献变小。低GDP将导致纽元贬值。

我与澳元携手并进

因为澳大利亚是新西兰的头号贸易伙伴,因此澳大利亚的经济表现对新西兰经济的影响重大。

例如,澳大利亚经济表现良好时,澳大利亚企业将增加进口活动,猜猜谁会从中受益呢?当然是新西兰!

……与澳元一样,我享受套利交易!

同澳大利亚一样,与其他经济体,如美国、英国、日本相比,新西兰利率较高。

经济体之间的利率差异是资金流动的指示器。由于投资者青睐高收益,因此,他们卖掉低收益投资,买入高收益资产或货币。换句话说,利率越高,流入资金越高。

我想要更多的移民。

因为新西兰的人口比纽约人口的一半还要少,移民的增加对该国经济的影响巨大。这是因为人口增加,对商品的需求和消费增加了。

我也对天气状况很敏感。

新西兰的经济很大程度上受农业的影响,这意味着严峻的天气状况,如干旱,对该国经济的负面影响很大。热浪同样会影响澳大利亚,并导致森林火灾,在成其GDP1%的损失。这对新西兰没有什么好处。

与纽元相关的重要经济指标

国内生产总值(GDP):同其他国家一样,GDP是新西兰经济报告中的一环。GDP用以衡量新西兰经济整体表现,会对纽元需求造成影响。

消费者物价指数(CPI):CPI衡量价格水平的变化。作为衡量通胀的指数,它受到新西兰联储的密切关注,以此来确定货币政策的变化。它的目的是保持物价稳定,记得吗?

贸易差额:新西兰的经济是出口导向型经济,交易上通常会察看贸易差额来确定国际上对新西兰生产的产品的需求。

哪些因素使纽元发生变动?

经济增长

积极的GDP增长反映了新西兰经济状况良好,这将增加对纽元的需求。负面的GDP增长数据表明该国经济表现不良,将压低对纽元的需求。

出口激增

对新西兰产品的需求高通常意味着GDP高,进而促使纽元升值。相反,低出口量对GDP的贡献较小,将导致纽元贬值。

商品价格上涨

商品价格上涨导致新西兰出口总值提高,进而推升GDP。商品价格下降则导致出口总值减少,将拉低GDP。

纽元/美元交易

纽元/美元交易头寸是以美元衡量的。

每点价值根据纽元/美元的现价计算(小数点后四位为一点)。

收益和损失以美元标价。对于10万单位纽元/美元的头寸,每一点的变动价值为10美元。对于1万单位纽元/美元的头寸,每一点的变动为1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。例如,如果纽元/美元当前汇率是0.7000,杠杆比例为100:1,

交易10万纽元头寸需要700美元。交易1万纽元头寸需要70美元。

看到了吧,因为纽元的价值低于美元,在所有主要货币中,它需要的保证金数量最少。这意味着进行纽元交易比较便宜。

纽元/美元交易技巧

新西兰强势经济报告将促使纽元升值。如果经济报告良好的几率较大,这意味着应该做纽元/美元多头。

经济报告表现不良,则将导致纽元贬值。如果未来的经济报告低于预期,这意味着应做纽元/美元空头。

除了关注经济报告,注意商品价格行为也可以为纽元/美元交易提供信号。

大多数情况下,高风险资产需求强时,商品价格上涨。这时,投资者将把他们的资金投入高收益资产,如黄金和其他商品,卖出低收益的美元。因此以商品为基础的纽元将较避险天堂美元大幅上涨。

另一方面,当风险规避迫使投资者逃向避险天堂时,纽元较美元贬值。

同澳大利亚一样,纽元是进行套利交易的绝佳候选人之一。套利交易涉及买入高利率货币,卖出低利率货币,新西兰较高的利率支持率纽元套利交易。

Country Profiles 国家概况 23

Switzerland

Switzerland was founded in 1291 and is located in the middle of western Europe and shares much of its history and culture with Germany, Austria, Italy, and France.

Although being right smack in the middle of Europe, Switzerland is not part of the European Union. While there were talks between the EU and Switzerland in the mid 1990s, the Swiss public rejected the proposal to be part of EU. Since then, Switzerland has maintained its economic independence.

Switzerland is considered to be a small country, but let us tell you that it is PACKED! It has a population of about 7.78 million, with around 477 people per square mile.

Switzerland is also known for its neutrality as it has refrained from participating in either of the two World Wars.

Switzerland

Switzerland: Facts, Figures, and Features

Switzerland Flag

  • Neighbors: Germany, France, Italy, Austria
  • Size: 15,940 square miles
  • Population: 7,954,700
  • Density: 477.4 people per square mile
  • Capital City: Bern
  • President of the Swiss Confederation: Didier Burkhalter
  • Currency: Swiss Franc (CHF)
  • Main Imports: Machinery and transport equipments, medicinal and pharmaceutical products, other chemicals, manufactured goods
  • Main Exports: Chemicals, clocks and watches, food, instruments, jewelry, machinery, pharmaceuticals, precious metals, textiles, Rolex, Roger Federer
  • Imports Partners: Germany 26.19%, Italy 10.46%, France 8.4%, United States 6.08%, China 5.75%, Austria 4.4%
  • Exports Partners: Germany 18.5%, United States 11.61%, Italy 7.61%, France 6.96%, United Kingdom 5.67%
  • Time Zones: GMT + 1
  • Website: https://www.switzerland.com/en.cfm/home

Economic Overview

Switzerland is one of the richest countries in the world in terms of per capita income (that’s total GDP divided by the country’s population).

In 2010, it produced $529.9 billion in total output. As small as it is, on a per person basis, it boasts of a GDP of $46,815, which is seventh highest in the world.

Its main trading partners are Germany, the U.S., France, Italy, Austria, Russia, and the U.K. Like Japan, Switzerland is also highly dependent on its exports, which make up about $308.3 billion or 58.2% of its GDP.

Switzerland’s main industries are machinery, chemicals, textiles, precision instruments and watches. Don’t laugh at that last one – it actually comprises a decent chunk of Switzerland’s output! Anyway, it’s time to move on!

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is presently chaired by Mr. Thomas Jordan, conducts the nation’s monetary policy by influencing the country’s monetary and credit conditions.

The Governing Board, which is responsible for determining the bank’s policies, consists of 3 members – the Chairman, Vice Chairman, and a third member. That’s right – only three people are part of the board!

Unlike most central banks, the SNB sets a target range for its desired interest rate (also called Libor) rather than a fixed figure for three months.

On top of its purpose to control the country’s money supply and influence interest rates, the SNB has a more on-hand role in keeping the CHF’s valuation stable.

An excessively strong CHF could cause inflation to spike and could also undermine the country’s exports. With Switzerland’s strong reliance on their exports, the SNB, favors a weaker CHF and does not hesitate to intervene in the forex markets to weaken it.

One of the major monetary policies of the SNB is inflation targeting. The bank’s inflation target, which is monitored in the CPI, is below 2% a year.

The bank will then attempt to influence the country’s actual inflation rate through open market operations and by adjusting the Libor rate.

Speaking of open market operations, the bank influences the Libor rate through short term repurchase (repo) transactions. A repo transaction involves selling of a particular security for cash and agreeing to repurchase the same security at a later date.

If the interest rate in the open market rises over the SNB’s desired band, the central bank will supply the other banks with more liquidity through repo operations at lower repo rates.

On the other hand, the SNB can reduce liquidity by increasing the repo rate, eventually increasing the Libor rate as well.

On the fiscal side, one attractive fiscal policy that Switzerland has is that they have some of the lowest tax rates among developed nations. In fact, it is often referred to as a “tax haven” nation.

Corporate tax rates in Switzerland run from 8.5% to 10.0%. This, in addition to its bank secrecy laws, make Switzerland one of the most business-friendly nations in the world.

Getting to Know the CHF

Not too long ago, France, Belgium, and Luxembourg also termed their currencies as francs… until they adopted the cooler euro, that is. At present, Switzerland is the only one using the franc as its currency, the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Among financial geeks, the Swiss Franc is known as the “Swissy”.

Thanks to Switzerland’s neutrality…

Switzerland is considered to be politically neutral due to its bank secrecy laws, giving the CHF a “safe haven” status as well. Usually, during times of economic uncertainty, investors move their funds into Switzerland, causing the CHF to gain in value.

I’m still stuck in the bling-bling era!

Not only do the Swiss refuse to join the “cool kids” of the EU, but they are also the only country that still adheres to a gold standard.

About 25% of the country’s money is backed with gold reserves, giving the CHF an 80% correlation with the price of gold. This means that whenever the price of gold rises, the CHF could stand to benefit as well.

Important Economic Indicators for the CHF

GDP – The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the measure of the country’s total value of all final goods and services. The report gauges the change in the economy’s total output from the previous period.

Retail sales – The headline retail sales report measures the monthly change in the total value of sales at a retail level.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The CPI measures the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services. The CPI is followed closely by the SNB, as it uses the report to help in its inflation analysis.

Balance of Trade – The balance of trade measures the total difference in value between exported and imported goods in the country. Switzerland has a very robust export industry so traders often use the country’s trade balance to measure how well the economy is faring.

What Moves the CHF

Price of Gold

As mentioned earlier, the CHF has an 80% correlation with the price of gold, as 25% of Switzerland’s cash is backed with gold reserves. When gold prices go up, the CHF usually goes up as well. Conversely, when gold prices slide, the CHF likewise declines.

Developments in the Euro Zone and the U.S.

Since Switzerland is an export-dependent country, it is vastly affected by the economic development of its major trading partners in the euro zone and the U.S. Switzerland’s major export partners in the euro zone are Germany (21.2%), France (8.2%), Italy (7.9%), and Austria (4.5%).

The U.S., meanwhile, takes about 8.7% of Switzerland’s exports. Poor economic performance in any of these countries could mean less business for Switzerland.

Sortin’ Out the Rough Edges

Political tension in its neighbors in Europe, particularly in the euro zone, could cause traders to seek the safety of the Swissy.

Remember that the euro zone is a brood of 16 states with the ECB directing and implementing a set of monetary policies for the entire group.

Given that the economies of the member-countries grow at different paces, ECB policies sometimes go against what a single nation needs at that specific time.

The X-factor

USD/CHF is also affected by the cross exchange rates like EUR/CHF. A jump in the EUR’s valuation due to a hike in the ECB’s interest rate, for example, could spill the Swissy’s weakness onto other currency pairs like USD/CHF.

Merger and Acquisition (M&A) Activities

Switzerland’s main industry is banking and finance. Merger and acquisition (M&A) activities, or simply the buying and selling of firms, are very common.

How can this affect the spot prices of the CHF?

For example, if a foreign firm wishes to acquire a business in Switzerland, it will have to pay for it using CHF. On the other hand, if a Swiss bank, for example, wishes to purchase a US firm, it will then have to dump its CHF for the USD.

Trading USD/CHF

USD/CHF is traded in the amounts denominated in USD. Standard lots sizes are $100,000 while mini lot sizes are $10,000.

The pip value, which is denominated in CHF, is calculated by dividing 1 pip (0.0001) by USD/CHF’s rate.

Profit and loss are denominated in Swiss francs. For one standard lot position size, each pip fluctuation is valued at 10 CHF. For one mini lot position size, each pip fluctuation is worth 1 CHF. To illustrate, if the prevailing market rate of USD/CHF is 1.0600 and you want to trade one standard lot, then one pip would be equivalent to 9.4340 USD.

Margin calculations are typically in USD. At 100:1 leverage, you need $1,000 to control 100,000 units of USD/CHF.

USD/CHF Trading Tactics

The Swissy pairs (USD/CHF and EUR/CHF) are usually active during the European trading session only. Both currency pairs tend to be range-bound most of the time. Given this, they are mostly susceptible to sudden spikes and breakouts.

As we mentioned earlier, the SNB is very much keen on monitoring the valuation of the Swissy. It is notoriously known to intervene in the forex market to weaken the CHF especially when it reaches some historical key levels.

For example, if USD/CHF falls back to its yearly low due to an increase in risk appetite, the SNB could just be lurking around to push the pair back higher.

You could also trade the Swissy by monitoring the economic fundamentals of its major trading partner, the euro zone. Any economic or political tension in the euro zone could lead investors back to the safety of the Swissy.

Given this, currency crosses like EUR/CHF could also be used to trade, for example, the USD/CHF. A rate hike by the ECB which boosts EUR/CHF could also spill over on USD/CHF.

Swiss

瑞士

如果你看过《指环王》,你也许知道中土世界是在新西兰的山中取景的。

除了是巴金斯(Frobo Baggins)和他的霍比特朋友的故乡,新西兰还是澳大利亚在大洋洲的邻国之一,位于太平洋南部。

该国主要由两个岛屿组成,北岛和南岛,此外还有一些小岛。

以羊比人多而闻名的新西兰有400万居民。为了让你更清楚这代表了什么,我们举个例子,2011年仅纽约的人口就有840万。

新西兰也被称为Aotearoa,毛利语的意思为“长白云之乡”。毛利语是新西兰的主要语言之一。

Country Profiles 国家概况 21

新西兰:事实、数据和特点

Country Profiles 国家概况 22

邻国:澳大利亚、斐济、汤加

面积:104,454平方英里

人口:4,268,600

人口密度:40.9每平方公里

首都:惠灵顿

国家元首:伊利莎白女王二世

政府首脑:总理约翰?基

货币:新西兰元(NZD)

主要进口:机械和设备、车辆和飞机、试验品、石油、电子产品、纺织品、塑料

主要出口:克罗(Russell Crowe)、矿石和金属、羊毛。食物和牲畜、燃料、交通机械及设备

进口伙伴:德国13.5%、美国10.2%、法国8.1%、荷兰6.3%、比利时4.9%、意大利4.7%

出口伙伴:美国15.7%、德国10.5%、法国9.5%、荷兰6.9%、爱尔兰6.5%、比利时5.6%、西班牙4.4%、意大利4.4%

时区:东12区

网站:https://www.newzealand.govt.nz

经济概览

由于人口很少,新西兰的经济量也较小。2011年新西兰的GDP为1230亿美元,在全球所有经济体中排名65。但是不要低估新西兰,它在世界贸易中扮演着十分重要的角色。

新西兰的经济活动主要依靠贸易,特别是和南方大陆(澳大利亚)、旭日之国(日本)、及山姆大叔(美国)之间贸易。其经济是出口导向型经济,主要出口商品,如矿石、金属和羊毛占了新西兰GDP的三分之一。它也出口牛和奶制品。安格斯牛肉听起来耳熟吗?

新西兰的主要产业包括农业和旅游业,而其制造业和技术部门很小。因此,它从其他国家进口的商品包括重型机械、设备、车辆和电子制品。

自从新西兰取消了许多限制外国投资壁垒,世界银行称赞新西兰为世界上仅次于新加坡的商业友好国家。

货币和财政政策

新西兰联储(新西兰央行)掌管该国的货币和财政政策。目前该行行长是伯纳德,新西兰联储每年召开8次货币政策会议。该央行的任务是维持物价稳定,确定利率和监控产出及汇率。为了保持物价稳定,新西兰联储要确保年通胀率达到央行设定的1.5%的标准,否则政府有权开掉新西兰储备银行的行长(我们不是开玩笑的)。

新西兰联储有以下几个货币政策工具:

官方贴现利率由新西兰联储主席确定,将会影响短期利率水平。以高于官方贴现利率25点借出,以低于该利率25点借入,央行可以调控个人和企业的利率。

公开市场操作是为了达到现金目标或在商业银行中保管的储备金数量。通过每天预测现金目标,新西兰联储可以计算要向经济中注入多少资金才能达到其目标。

了解纽元

新西兰元(纽元)的昵称是“几维”。它是一种鸟。几维是新西兰的象征……但是让我们来看看被称为几维的该国货币和它有趣的特征。

让我看看这些商品!

由于新西兰的经济依靠商品和农产品出口,因此该国的经济表现和商品价格密切相关。

如果商品价格上涨,新西兰出口商品的价格相应增加,这将为该国贡献更多的GDP。高GDP表明经济表现良好,这将导致纽元升值。

相反,商品价格下降意味着出口总价下降,对GDP的贡献变小。低GDP将导致纽元贬值。

我与澳元携手并进

因为澳大利亚是新西兰的头号贸易伙伴,因此澳大利亚的经济表现对新西兰经济的影响重大。

例如,澳大利亚经济表现良好时,澳大利亚企业将增加进口活动,猜猜谁会从中受益呢?当然是新西兰!

……与澳元一样,我享受套利交易!

同澳大利亚一样,与其他经济体,如美国、英国、日本相比,新西兰利率较高。

经济体之间的利率差异是资金流动的指示器。由于投资者青睐高收益,因此,他们卖掉低收益投资,买入高收益资产或货币。换句话说,利率越高,流入资金越高。

我想要更多的移民。

因为新西兰的人口比纽约人口的一半还要少,移民的增加对该国经济的影响巨大。这是因为人口增加,对商品的需求和消费增加了。

我也对天气状况很敏感。

新西兰的经济很大程度上受农业的影响,这意味着严峻的天气状况,如干旱,对该国经济的负面影响很大。热浪同样会影响澳大利亚,并导致森林火灾,在成其GDP1%的损失。这对新西兰没有什么好处。

与纽元相关的重要经济指标

国内生产总值(GDP):同其他国家一样,GDP是新西兰经济报告中的一环。GDP用以衡量新西兰经济整体表现,会对纽元需求造成影响。

消费者物价指数(CPI):CPI衡量价格水平的变化。作为衡量通胀的指数,它受到新西兰联储的密切关注,以此来确定货币政策的变化。它的目的是保持物价稳定,记得吗?

贸易差额:新西兰的经济是出口导向型经济,交易上通常会察看贸易差额来确定国际上对新西兰生产的产品的需求。

哪些因素使纽元发生变动?

经济增长

积极的GDP增长反映了新西兰经济状况良好,这将增加对纽元的需求。负面的GDP增长数据表明该国经济表现不良,将压低对纽元的需求。

出口激增

对新西兰产品的需求高通常意味着GDP高,进而促使纽元升值。相反,低出口量对GDP的贡献较小,将导致纽元贬值。

商品价格上涨

商品价格上涨导致新西兰出口总值提高,进而推升GDP。商品价格下降则导致出口总值减少,将拉低GDP。

纽元/美元交易

纽元/美元交易头寸是以美元衡量的。

每点价值根据纽元/美元的现价计算(小数点后四位为一点)。

收益和损失以美元标价。对于10万单位纽元/美元的头寸,每一点的变动价值为10美元。对于1万单位纽元/美元的头寸,每一点的变动为1美元。

保证金交易的计算都是基于美元。例如,如果纽元/美元当前汇率是0.7000,杠杆比例为100:1,

交易10万纽元头寸需要700美元。交易1万纽元头寸需要70美元。

看到了吧,因为纽元的价值低于美元,在所有主要货币中,它需要的保证金数量最少。这意味着进行纽元交易比较便宜。

纽元/美元交易技巧

新西兰强势经济报告将促使纽元升值。如果经济报告良好的几率较大,这意味着应该做纽元/美元多头。

经济报告表现不良,则将导致纽元贬值。如果未来的经济报告低于预期,这意味着应做纽元/美元空头。

除了关注经济报告,注意商品价格行为也可以为纽元/美元交易提供信号。

大多数情况下,高风险资产需求强时,商品价格上涨。这时,投资者将把他们的资金投入高收益资产,如黄金和其他商品,卖出低收益的美元。因此以商品为基础的纽元将较避险天堂美元大幅上涨。

另一方面,当风险规避迫使投资者逃向避险天堂时,纽元较美元贬值。

同澳大利亚一样,纽元是进行套利交易的绝佳候选人之一。套利交易涉及买入高利率货币,卖出低利率货币,新西兰较高的利率支持率纽元套利交易。

Country Profiles 国家概况 23

China

Welcome to the grown-ups’ table, China!

If all you know about China is that it has the world’s largest population and Great Wall, then you need to read up, playa!

China was first recognized as a unified country back in 221 BC, ruled by the Qin dynasty. No, big, fat pandas weren’t kung fu masters back then; at least we don’t’ think so. Since that time, we’ve seen many dynasties rise and fall until the People’s Republic of China was establish in 1945.

It wasn’t until recently though, that China emerged as a legitimate world power. It boasts world class cities, Olympic gold medalists, and delicious dimsum. Not only is it the birthplace of Yao Ming, it even became the third nation to send a man to space.

From sports, to space travel, to economic might, China is slowly crawling its way up the leader boards!

China

China: Facts, Figures, and Features

China Flag

  • Neighbors: Korea, Mongolia, India, Japan, Russia
  • Size: 3,705,407 square miles
  • Population: 1,350,695,000
  • Density: 373 per square mile
  • Capital City: Beijing (population: 11,716,000)
  • Head of Government: Xi Jinping
  • Currency: Chinese Renminbi / Yuan (CNY)
  • Main Imports: petroleum, copper, iron, steel, machinery, plastics, medical equipment, organic chemicals
  • Main Exports: rice, apparel, clothing, office machines, electronic goods, machinery, steel, Yao Ming, Jackie Chan, Apple iPads, Cherry cars
  • Imports Partners: South Korea 9.4%, Japan 8.3%, Taiwan 8%, United States 7.8%, Australia 5%, Germany 4.8%
  • Exports Partners: Hong Kong 17.4%, United States 16.7%, Japan 6.8%, South Korea 4.1%
  • Time Zone: GMT+8, GMT+7, GMT +6, GMT +5, GMT+4
  • Website: https://english.gov.cn/

Economic Overview

In late 2009, China overtook Japan as the world’s second largest economy and as of 2011, China’s GDP stands at a massive 7 trillion USD.

It wasn’t always this way though. For the longest time, China’s economy was secluded from the rest of the world. It was only during the formalization of the modern government, the People’s Republic of China, that China started opening its door to the rest of the world.

China hit a humungous growth spurt in the 1990s and 2000s, as the nation posted ridiculous double digit growth. This put its booming economy at the forefront of emerging market growth.

Interestingly, the growth has been spurred on by the agriculture and industrial industries, which account for more than 60% of the total GDP.

Export trade has also played a major factor, with the undervalued yuan helping make Chinese goods more attractive in international markets.

Over the past year though, there have been fears that the Chinese economy may overheat. To counter this, the Chinese government has implemented various monetary and fiscal policies to ease the transition to more sustainable growth levels.

Monetary & Fiscal Policy

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which is located in Beijing, is in charge of China’s monetary policies. Aside from controlling interest rates and reserve ratio requirements, the PBoC is also tasked with regulating financial institutions in mainland China.

Now here’s a little piece of trivia for you: Did you know that the PBoC currently holds the most financial assets among all the public financial institutions in existence? It is currently holding over $1.3 TRILLION USD worth of Treasury bills, and not to mention all the other bonds from other countries that’s on its balance sheet!

This shouldn’t be too surprising considering how China managed to trump most nations in terms of economic performance!

Another interesting factoid about the PBoC is that its interest rates used to be divisible by 9 instead of 25 a few years back. This was because the Chinese based their rate system on the abacus, which was set in multiplies of 9. Can you imagine reading about a 0.18% hike in benchmark rates?

Recently, however, the PBoC decided to let go of this traditional practice and adopt the convention of hiking or cutting interest rates by 0.25% increments. In fact, the PBoC is pretty notorious for making aggressive interest rate changes depending on how the Chinese economy is faring.

Aside from the interest rate, the PBoC also has the ability to adjust the reserve ratio requirement (RRR) for banks in its monetary policy arsenal. You see, the RRR refers to the amount of cash Chinese banks are required to hold in their vaults. By varying the ratio, the PBoC is able to control how much money is in circulation and keep inflation within their target levels.

Getting to Know the CNY

The yuan is the primary unit of Chinese modern currency or renminbi. If you’re constantly getting confused between yuan and renminbi just as Dr. Pipslow often mistakes sugar for salt when making his morning coffee, all you have to remember is that the term renminbi is the official name of China’s currency while yuan refers to the actual units.

Although China is in the midst of reforming its exchange rate policies, the yuan still remains pegged to the U.S. dollar. This means that if the U.S. dollar rises or falls in value, the yuan follows accordingly. As such, CNY isn’t one of the commonly traded currencies in the forex market.

One problem with this peg is that it has caused tension between China and the United States, who has come close to naming China a currency manipulator. Because the yuan is undervalued, haters claim that it gives China an unfair trade advantage and has be the main driver of Chinese growth.

To China’s credit though, it has been gradually loosening the yuan’s peg in recent years. They’ve done so by slowing introducing CNY-denominated bonds in Hong Kong. Word on the street is that big financial players can’t wait to start changing their cash to yuans and investing in CNY-denominated assets.

Important Economic Indicators for the CNY

GDP – This figure acts as China’s economic report card because it reflects how much their economy expanded or contracted (but it’s the former in recent history, and nearly at double digits too!) for the period. This is typically reported on a quarterly basis compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

CPI – The PBoC keeps a close eye on the Chinese CPI report because it reflects how much price levels have changed over a particular period of time. If the annual CPI reading exceeds or falls below the Chinese government’s target levels, the PBoC could wield its monetary policy tools in its next rate decision.

Trade Balance – A huge chunk of China’s economy is comprised of international trade, which means that the trade balance is typically considered a leading indicator of growth.

PBoC Interest Rate Decision – As we mentioned earlier, PBoC is notorious for making aggressive monetary policy changes whenever they feel that the Chinese economy is overheating or if it needs more stimulus.

Trading the Chinese Economic Reports

Even though the yuan isn’t a commonly traded currency, that doesn’t mean you can’t make any pips off those Chinese economic releases!

Because China’s economy is so ginormous, its economic events will most likely impact those nations that they are closely associated with. One of these is Australia. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, with the two nations exchanging nearly a hundred billion dollars’ worth of products each year.

With that, Chinese economic data releases tend to impact the Australian dollar the most among the major currency pairs. Strong economic data from China typically indicates that the Chinese demand for Australian commodities could increase while weak Chinese data could hint at a downturn in trade with Australia.

Of course, since China is currently the world’s second largest economy next to Uncle Sam, its economic standing also has a huge effect on risk sentiment. This means that a slowdown in China could reduce traders’ appetite for risk and higher-yielding currencies as they worry about the potential impact of this slump on the global economy. On the other hand, an economic boom in China could be positive for risk as market participants see this as a sign of further growth for the global economy.

Trade Tactics

If you watch the Australian dollar just like our comdoll queen Happy Pip, then you should definitely mark your calendars for Chinese economic releases and PBoC statements.

More often than not, better than expected economic figures from China lead to an AUD/USD or AUD/JPY rally while weaker than expected results usually trigger an Aussie selloff. PBoC rate decisions are a little more tricky as these depend on prevailing market sentiment, so it’s best to do your homework and read up on Forex Gump’s economic analysis articles to be in the loop!

Chinese

中国

欢迎来到中国!

如果你对中国的了解仅限于它是世界上人口最多的国家,以及长城,那你需要好好读下去。

中国自公元前221年就是一个统一的国家,由秦统治。不过那时大胖熊猫还不是功夫大师,至少我们不认为它是。自那时起,许多朝代接替出现,直到1949年中华人民共和国成立。

直到最近,中国才以世界认可的大国姿态出现。它有世界级的城市、奥运会冠军和可口的点心。除了是姚明的故乡,中国还是第三个将宇航员送入太空的国家。

从体育到太空旅行,到经济能力,中国在慢慢提升自己在排行榜上的位置。

Country Profiles 国家概况 27

中国:事实、数据及特点

Country Profiles 国家概况 28

邻国:韩国、朝鲜、蒙古、印度、日本、俄罗斯

面积:960万平方公里

人口:1,347,350,000

人口密度:363.3人每平方公里

首都:北京(人口11,716,000)

政府首脑:胡锦涛

货币:人民币/元(CNY)

主要进口:石油、铜、铁、机械、塑料、医疗设备、有机化工原料

主要出口:大米、配饰、服装、办公用品、电子产品、机械、钢材、姚明、成龙、苹果平板电脑、奇瑞车

进口伙伴:日本12.7%、韩国9.9%、美国7.3%、德国5.3%、澳大利亚4.37%

出口伙伴:美国18.0%、日本7.7%、韩国4.4%、德国4.3%、荷兰3.2%

时区:东八区、东七区、东六区、东五区、东四区

网站:https://www.gov.cn/

经济概览

2009年末,中国超过日本成为世界上第二大经济体。到2011年,中国的GDP达到了7万亿美元。

它并非一直如此强势。在很长一段时间,中国都维持着脱离世界上其他国家的计划经济。在中华人民共和国成立后,中国开始向世界敞开了它的大门。

中国经济在20世纪末到21世纪初获得了长足的发展,因为它保持了两位数增长速度。其繁荣的经济带动了新兴市场的发展。

有趣的是,其经济增长是靠农业和工业推动的,它们占了GDP总量的60%。

出口贸易扮演了十分重要的角色,物廉价美的商品是中国的商品在国际市场上更具吸引力。

在过去的一年里,市场存在着对中国经济过热的担忧。为此,中国政府实行了一系列的货币和财政政策来放松交易,维持增长水平。

货币和财政政策

中国人民银行位于北京,掌管中国的货币政策。除了控制利率和存款准备金率,中国人民银行也担负着监管中国大陆金融机构的重任。有一点要记住:你知道中国人民银行在所有现有公共金融机构中持有的金融资产数额最大吗?它现在持有价值3万亿美元的美国国债,更不要说它资产负债表上其他国家的债券数额了。

这并不太让人吃惊,只要想想其他国家和中国在经济表现方面差距就知道了。

第一个有关中国人民银行的趣事是几年前它的利率是可以被9整除,而不是可被25整除的。这是由于中国基于算盘建立了它的利率体系,而算盘是以九的倍数设立的。你可以想象基准利率中出现0.18%的读数吗?

然而在2011年,中国人民银行放弃了其原有做法,采用了传统0.25%的利率增加和削减体系。

除了利率,中国人民银行还可以调整银行的存款准备金率(RRR)。存款准备金率是指中国的银行可以保留的现金数额。通过调整存准率,中国人民银行可以控制流通中的现金数量,将通胀维持在目标水平。

了解人民币

元是中国现代货币或人民币的基本单位。如果你总是搞混元和人民币,你只要记住人民币是中国货币的官方名称,而元是实际的单位。尽管中国正在改革它的汇率政策,元依靠美元定价。这意味着如果美元升值或贬值,元随之变动。因此,人民币不是外汇市场中常见的交易货币。

这种依附关系导致了中美之间关系的紧张。美国一直将中国成为汇率操纵国。由于人民币被低估,因此怀恨者称这使得中国享有不公平的贸易优势,而这也是中国经济增长的主要原因。

从中国的角度来说,近几年它放宽了对人民币的限制。他们开始在香港推出以人民币定价的债券。据悉金融巨头们迫不及待的把他们的现金兑换成人民币,然后投资以人民币定价的资产。

与人民币相关的重要经济指标

GDP:这个数据作为中国经济成绩单,反映了中国经济扩张和紧缩(近期其状态是前者,接近两位数)的程度。这份报告按季度发布,显示的是同比变化水平。

CPI:中国人民银行紧密关注中国CPI报告,因为它反映了价格水平在一个特定时间段的变化。如果CPI读数超过了或低于中国政府的预定目标,中国人民银行会在它下一次利率会议上变动货币政策。

贸易差额:中国经济的很大一部分是由国家贸易构成的,这意味着,贸易差额是经济增长的重要指标之一。

中国人民银行利率决定:中国央行会根据整体经济综合考量来决定是否采取利率行动,但中国央行并不会定期公布利率结果。

交易中国经济报告

即使人民币并非常见的交易货币,这也不意味着你不能从中获利。

因为中国经济量极大,它的经济表现将会影响那些和它关系紧密的国家。其中之一就是澳大利亚。中国是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴,两国每年交易千亿美元的产品。

因此,中国经济数据在主要货币对中,对澳元的影响最大。中国经济数据强势表明,中国对澳大利亚的商品的需求可能会增加,而中国经济数据显现颓势则意味着其与澳大利亚之间的贸易会缩水。

当然,由于中国是仅次于美国的第二大经济体,中国的经济状况对风险情绪的影响很大。这意味着中国经济放缓将降低投资者对风险和高收益货币的偏好,因为他们担心这将使世界经济发展受挫。另一方面,中国经济繁荣是一个积极的信号,市场参与者因为经济香儿而风险偏好增加。

交易技巧

如果你关注澳元交易,那你一定要在你的日历上标好中国经济数据和中国人民银行声明的公布时间。

通常,超出预期的中国经济数据将推升澳元/美元或澳元/日元,而低于预期的数据则将引发澳元空头交易。中国人民银行的利率决议有些复杂,因为它们受市场情绪的影响。

Country Profiles 国家概况 29